Dr Andreas Krieg
Author - Asso Prof King's College London / Royal College of Defence Studies (Global Strategy Program)
Fellow Institute of Middle Eastern Studies
Director MENA analytica Ltd
Interests: MENA, Gulf, Network-centric statecraft
- "The Saudis have a unique moment right now to lead the region, especially at a time when many actors feel increasingly alienated by the Emirates....the mindset and strategic culture of Abu Dhabi is fundamentally different. Under pressure, they push back — they don’t fold..." youtu.be/bEBROI1f6NQ
- "As @andreaskrieg.bsky.social from King’s College London, told Al Jazeera, this [Board of Peace] offers a “direct line to the White House” and “buys them insurance” against future exclusion." www.the-independent.com/news/world/m...
- "@andreaskrieg.bsky.social has described the #UAE’s regional network as an “axis of secessionists.” “Abu Dhabi is comfortable operating below the threshold of formal statecraft, building influence through a web of intermediaries" www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...
- @andreaskrieg.bsky.social adds "inside #Iran, collective action remains largely leaderless and networked: Local mobilization, social ties, workplace dynamics, and university ecosystems produce bursts of coordinated protest without an integrated command structure" www.dw.com/en/albania-w...
- My piece for @aljazeera.com ✍️ "Donald Trump has boxed himself in by promising to ‘help’ #Iran’s protesters. But he has few good options for military operations that he can control" Looking at scenarios for US military strikes on Iran www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/...
- @andreaskrieg.bsky.social has called the movement of the blocks a "tool for territorial engineering". "By keeping the legal line on the map and the physical blocks hundreds of metres apart, Israel preserves the ability to shift where Gazans live, move and farm" www.linkedin.com/redir/redire...
- "I don’t think there’s such a thing as a decisive strike against Iran, because that would require a long, drawn-out military campaign — and I don’t think the Trump administration is ready for that. youtu.be/KXWM4Sddjv0
- As MbS enters the 3rd phase of his reign, #Saudi has a unique opportunity to build a KSA-centric regional order as it is pushing back against the #UAE's Axis of Secessionists I look at what Riyadh needs to do to create a Pax Saudiana #Sudan #Yemen #Somalia amwaj.media/en/article/p...
- Reposted by Dr Andreas Krieg[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Dr Andreas Krieg[Not loaded yet]
- My new piece on how #Saudi is enforcing red lines desperately trying to contain the #UAE's Axis of Secessionists across the region For Riyadh #Yemen is not a chessboard, but its backyard Abu Dhabi's foothold will be maintained by surrogate network www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/yeme...
- "We might not like what the UAE are doing, how they're doing it. But they have made themselves indispensable in all these conflicts. I call it weaponized interdependence. They've created a web that is so all encompassing that you'll have to eventually speak to them" www.patreon.com/posts/radio-...
- My MEE podcast on the roots of Abu Dhabi's strategic thinking and culture, the #UAE's Axis of Secessionists and how it transformed from a small state to a middle power by intervening in #Sudan, #Yemen, #Somalia, #Libya and #Egypt youtu.be/au8rfmdUGvo?...
- "This activity is extremely lucrative ," continues @andreaskrieg.bsky.social , " and generates a lot of money for the United Arab Emirates, but especially for the paramilitaries of the Rapid Support Forces, who launder the gold. #UAE #RSF #Sudan www.dw.com/fr/le-trafic...
- Die Emirate sorgen dafür, dass es möglichst keine Belege für eine direkte Verbindung zu den RSF gibt», sagt der Militärexperte @andreaskrieg.bsky.social. «Die Unterstützung wird stets so arrangiert, dass sie glaubwürdig geleugnet werden kann.» www.nzz.ch/internationa...
- My new piece ✍️ on #UAE strategy in #Sudan "Since the Arab Spring, MbZ has been consistent: tie local actors to UAE logistics and finance, reward compliance, punish betrayal, and cultivate multiple allies so you never lose your seat at the table" www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/uae-...
- "This is part of what I call Abu Dhabi’s ‘Axis of Secessionists’, a strategy that wins by not being defeated, keeping allies resourced and corridors open, and converting time into leverage," said @andreaskrieg.bsky.social" #UAE #RSF www.newarab.com/analysis/how...
- Reposted by Dr Andreas Krieg[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Dr Andreas Krieg[Not loaded yet]
- "This is just a ceasefire that needs to be translated into a peace deal. Turkish boots on the ground will be important to move towards a multinational security force in Gaza," he explained, saying Turkey and Qatar would play a key role in "deconflicting" efforts. www.yahoo.com/news/article...
- "As Prof @andreaskrieg.bsky.social, a Middle East security expert from King's College London, says: "It's worse than starting from scratch - here you aren't starting in the sand, you are starting with rubble." #Gaza www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
- On how the #Gulf states have generated strategic autonomy through #network centric statecraft, weaponizing connectivity and interdependence to extract global influence. youtu.be/sejgGFDfrAw
- "Israel has systematically destroyed Gaza's civil and governance infrastructure. With Hamas severely degraded, the vacuum may be filled by rival factions. This chaos could serve Israel’s interests, providing a pretext to re-enter under the guise of restoring order" youtu.be/_n1-xR-LF34
- Citing Sarajevo, Grozny, and Mosul, @andreaskrieg.bsky.social said: “There are precedents, but #Gaza is totally different. There it was one single city — here it is four times that — one massive strip of land.” www.thetimes.com/world/middle...
- "A transition to sustainable peace in #Gaza lacks four elements: (1) a mutually hurting stalemate; (2) effective leadership on both sides; (3) committed international guarantors; and (4) a viable DDR program for disarmament amid an open-ended IDF withdrawal plan" youtu.be/7GhxRS9ohgs
- "Negotiators are still working through the order of steps on a first phase that ties a ceasefire to an initial Israeli pullback and a hostage-prisoner exchange. If either side questions who moves first, or if names on the exchange lists cannot be verified in time, implementation will slip.”
- Deep-dive with FirstPost into what #Trump's security commitment to #Qatar means, legally, for the #Gulf, for the US role as a protector in the region and the pivot to Asia youtu.be/evnlNR6dUXQ
- For Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at King's College London, the directive "turns attacks on Doha into problems for Washington". "For the region, it restores a measure of deterrence but leaves the United States with ample discretion over how to act," he added. www.barrons.com/news/what-tr...
- "A phased plan should set conditions: recruitment of Palestinian police, milestones for districts handed over, timelines for drawdown, said Andreas Krieg. "Otherwise, the ISF risks looking like an occupying army rather than a transitional stabilisation mission" www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10...
- "This Executive Order is an unprecedented security commitment by the United States to a non-treaty ally, just falling short of an NATO Art. 5 commitment...The Trump administration wanted to give as firm an assurance as possible within the shortest time possible" youtu.be/YhsWXssBs6s
- “For #Hamas, the plan amounts to an existential threat”, @andreaskrieg.bsky.social said. “Yet Hamas has historically sought to amend rather than wholly reject proposals, the political leadership abroad could explore a partial acceptance of certain elements" www.independent.co.uk/news/world/m...
- Reposted by Dr Andreas Krieg[Not loaded yet]
- "Security in the #Gulf has long been based on a tributary logic, basically you pay someone else to take care of your protection," @andreaskrieg.bsky.social said. "That mentality is beginning to shift after the attack on #Qatar" he acknowledges, "but only slowly." www.dw.com/en/is-the-mi...
- @andreaskrieg.bsky.social however, warned that this “leaves him turning a blind eye to the risks that Israel may use ‘salami tactics’ - carving out security arrangements piece by piece until Syrian sovereignty in the south is permanently undermined”. www.newarab.com/analysis/how...
- “#Israel’s threat to Turkiye is not conventional military aggression but rather the targeting of Turkish interests via indirect means,” said @andreaskrieg.bsky.social, speaking about Ankara’s interests in Syria, the Eastern Mediterranean and the South Caucasus. www.aljazeera.com/features/202...
- My new piece✍️ "The return of the Arab–Israeli conflict is not just about framing discourse. It is about a dangerous new reality that will likely spark a period of confrontation where wars over narratives can easily spill into the military domain" www.andreaskrieg.com/post/the-ret...
- “Qataris always had the ability to reach out to any actor and engage them, including Hamas or the Taliban, as they knew domestically that the home front is always safe,” said @andreaskrieg.bsky.social. observer.co.uk/news/interna...
- My piece ✍️ on how Israel's strike on Qatar fundamentally challenges long-held strategic assumptions in the Gulf In a transactional post-US order, the #Gulf states need develop more strategic autonomy & use their bargaining power also with the US amwaj.media/en/article/i...
- The strike "will also put further strain on US-Qatar relations, which is exactly what Israel wants to do", said @andreaskrieg.bsky.social "It wants to drive a wedge between Qatar and the United States." www.france24.com/en/live-news...
- My piece on declining US leadership ✍️ "Struggling for words, #Trump appears powerless to put his dog on the lead. Instead, it is once again the tail wagging the dog - a reality that across the #Gulf will be seen as weak and helpless" #Israel www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/isra...
- "Mais l’émirat ne pourra pas faire l’économie d’une introspection. « On assiste à l’effondrement du vieil ordre mondial, fondé sur le multilatéralisme, argumente M.Krieg. Le Qatar, qui a toujours joué cette carte, risque de pâtir de la recomposition en cours.» www.lemonde.fr/internationa...
- "For the IDF the attack on Qatar was an operational failure because the Hamas leadership survived and might embolden a sidelined leader like Al Haya. Its also a strategic failure because Israel confirms its pariah state status in the Gulf undermining the normalization trend" youtu.be/cRUnpFO59N8?...
- "Trump's statement reinforces the perception that Washington is no longer in control. The US cannot restrain its closest ally, nor protect its closest mediator. That is a dangerous place for American credibility to be", says @andreaskrieg.bsky.social www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article...
- Qatar's PM pressed Hamas to 'respond positively' to the latest US proposed Gaza ceasefire/hostage deal That is despite Trump being unable to restrain Netanyahu to keep his side of the bargain www.jpost.com/israel-news/...
- "For now, #Israel seems to be using a "fusion of satellite, drone and intercepted communications, perhaps with American or Gulf assistance, rather than an extensive on-the-ground spy network", @andreaskrieg.bsky.social told AFP. www.barrons.com/news/israeli...
- “The larger implication is the normalisation of irregular warfare at sea: a non-state actor demonstrating it can threaten a global trade artery for political leverage. That precedent will not be easily undone," said @andreaskrieg.bsky.social #Yemen www.newarab.com/analysis/isr...
- «Au #Soudan Abou Dhabi fournit des armes, des fonds et un soutien logistique aux #FSR, utilisant ce groupe paramilitaire comme intermédiaire pour renforcer son influence sur les routes commerciales de l’or, l’accès à la mer Rouge et contrer les acteurs islamistes » souligne @andreaskrieg.bsky.social
- “The recruitment of Colombian mercenaries by the RSF dates back to at least late 2024, but it is a continuation of a longer-standing practice by the UAE of employing former Latin American soldiers in Yemen and Libya,” confirms @andreaskrieg.bsky.social " www.lepoint.fr/afrique/au-s...
- Reposted by Dr Andreas Krieg[Not loaded yet]
- @andreaskrieg.bsky.social predicted that #Israel would deliberately keep its neighbours in “a state of permanent limbo”. Such a strategy risked cementing Israel’s image as “a rogue state akin to Iran: isolationist, ideologically driven, and destabilising”. www.scmp.com/week-asia/po...
- Reposted by Dr Andreas Krieg[Not loaded yet]
- "The #RSF's transformation in #Sudan from a guerilla force to a force with high-tech air power has been underwritten by a clandestine network revolving around the #UAE that has created a transnational supply chain" youtu.be/O43uWS0Btps
- "Es fehlt beiden Seiten am politischen Interesse, den Krieg zu beenden”, sagt der Nahostexperte @andreaskrieg.bsky.social vom King’s College London. „Alles hängt von Trump ab – doch der agiert unentschlossen" www.focusplus.de/politik/hung...
- Reposted by Dr Andreas Krieg[Not loaded yet]
- Israel’s Diaspora Ministry is running a Russia-style info war on Europe’s democracies building networks of 'useful idiots' to shield its actions in Gaza and West Bank from accountability Time to list Israel's Ministry of #Subversion as a threat www.andreaskrieg.com/post/israel-...
- Reposted by Dr Andreas Krieg[Not loaded yet]
- "What is on the table now is effectively just another prisoner swap deal, not a real ceasefire deal,” @andreaskrieg.bsky.social said. www.arabnews.com/node/2609137...
- "Israel has an interest in keeping Syria in a state of limbo, undermining Al Sharaa's consensus-building effort. For them Al Sharaa as the mayor of Damascus is preferable to a prosperous Syria right on its border with a military that down the line could pose a threat" youtu.be/4jrvXTj9whE
- Reposted by Dr Andreas Krieg[Not loaded yet]
- #Israel's Trojan Horse: The #Druze and the weaponization of minority solidarity ✍️I am looking at how Israel since December 2024 has been orchestrating information campaigns to exploit Druze grievances to legitimate IDF landgrabs in #Syria www.andreaskrieg.com/post/israel-...
