Quick thread on how it is shocking the government has supressed this report, but it is equally shocking that anyone should be surprised by its contents. www.businessgreen.com/news/4524657...

It has been clear for decades now that politicians, businesses, and the public are failing to make the obvious link between climate impacts we can be highly certain are coming and what they are likely to mean at the societal, economic, and security level.

If food systems collapse - and it is an entirely reasonable worst case scenario that they could - then it is highly likely it would trigger biblical levels of migration and conflict.

One of the most obvious flash points for nuclear conflict are the three nuclear armed nations that are reliant on Himalayan glaciers and we know those glaciers are retreating.

Food price inflation is known to drive instability and violence throughout history, and we know climate change presents a severe threat to food security. Why should this time be different?

None of this should be surprising or controversial. It is why all those reports suggesting climate change will knock 3-4% of GDP are objectively ridiculous. Even some of the better climate scenarios would clearly be worse than that.

It is the climate theory of everything in action and it remains maddeningly surreal that it is routinely ignored and then even actively supressed when people try to raise the alarm. www.businessgreen.com/blog-post/41...

The only rationale for downplaying such warnings would be to avoid panicking people while you put in place the measures and investments required to address these risks.

That is to say the trillions of dollars that need to flow into climate resilient infrastructure, regenerative agriculture, alternative proteins, managed migration, and, most of all, the net zero transition that is the only mechanism for averting the realistic worst case scenarios.

But they are not even doing that at anything like the scale and pace that is clearly necessary. This is not just about Trump and his allies' climate denialist insanity. It is long past time supposedly serious people woke up to the reality of what we are facing.

The standard response to these warnings is that it is eco-warrior neo-Malthusian doom-mongering that has been wrong multiple times in the past. But, firstly, these warnings are not coming from Greenpeace, they are coming from the security services and the defence establishment.

And secondly, it is possible we could get lucky and climate impacts are less severe than feared, while tech breakthroughs in energy, food production, and carbon removal ride to the rescue.

But can anyone even vaguely serious look at current climate projections and argue the catastrophic scenarios are not entirely plausible? They are completely in line with what we know about ecosystems, economies, and human nature. There are plenty of terrifying historic precedents.