Bernie Kaussler
Professor of Political Science at JMU. 🇺🇸 Thinking out loud about geopolitics and security. ✍️Author of several books on Middle East security and U.S. foreign policy. Latest 📖: “Proxy War in Yemen” ( 2023) from 🇩🇪🇪🇺, educated in 🇬🇧 (views are my own)
- CNN: He‘s in the files! CBS: He‘s in the files! QVC: He‘s in the files! FOX: Our best Thanks Giving recipes! Thanks Giving TV: He‘s in the files!
- It is safe to say that nuclear negotiations are not going well…
- The „secure the border“ team seems very keen on forcing Ukraine to redraw theirs.
- Reposted by Bernie KausslerOn the latest episode of “The Foreign Affairs Interview,” Fiona Hill discusses Donald Trump’s admiration for Vladimir Putin—and why his push for warmer relations with Moscow is raising alarms across European capitals:
- Not surprisingly Russia moved the goalposts today and is essentially demanding for the U.S. and Europe to completely abandon Ukraine during the cease fire period. Of course that is also Putin‘s long term goal.
- Some of my thoughts European/Canadian leadership and deterrence amidst the trans-Atlantic chaos that unleashed by the Trump administration.
- Reposted by Bernie KausslerStanford University has announced a staff hiring freeze to ward against “potential financial uncertainties” from the Trump administration’s efforts to cut research funding and to tax endowments.
- A JL Partners poll that was mentioned in Politicos this morning asked 1001 voters who they view as the U.S. closest ally: 🇬🇧 UK: 43% 🇨🇦 Canada: 24% 🇫🇷 France: 6% 🇷🇺 Russia: 6% 🇨🇳 China: 5% 🇩🇪 Germany: 4% 🇲🇽 Mexico: 4% 🇺🇦 Ukraine: 3% That makes upending the int. liberal order a little easier to sell at home
- Reposted by Bernie KausslerUS Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff referred to the early 2022 Istanbul protocols as offering "guideposts" for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. An agreement based on those protocols would be a capitulation document.🧵 (1/9)
- Reposted by Bernie KausslerWe're all Gaullists now, says Dutch - yes, Dutch - foreign minister, in response to Merz remarks on Trump & European defence. "The era that started at the fall of the Berlin Wall is now over," says Caspar Veldkamp.
- Reposted by Bernie KausslerARD vs. ZDF choose your fighter
- Reposted by Bernie KausslerWährend bei der vergangenen Bundestagswahl um 14 Uhr lediglich 36,5 Prozent der Wahlberechtigten ihre Stimme abgegeben hatten, waren es diesmal 52 Prozent. Vor-Ort-Eindrücke, Faktenchecks und Live-Analysen im SPIEGEL-Blog.
- A good reminder that Putin doesn’t want peace but seeks to dominate Ukraine. Even if one would call this power-based negotiations helping Russia to gain more leverage ( think of Nixon‘s 1972 Christmas bombing), Moscow does this with impunity. Team Rubio continues to reach out its hand to Lavrov.
- MAGA talking points these last 7 days: - EU democracies are the real problem - far right pro-Russian party needs to win in 🇩🇪 - No to Ukrainian territorial integrity - No NATO membership - Zelensky must go - 🇺🇸🇷🇺 talks without Europe - and now: ❗️Ukraine started it all
- Appeasment of Russia today may pave the way for it to wage large scale war. According to Danish intelligence "Russia is likely to be more willing to use military force in a regional war against one or more European NATO countries if it perceives NATO as militarily weakened or politically divided,"
- Reposted by Bernie KausslerWe shouldn't take anything off the table before the negotiations have even started. It is clear that any deal behind our backs will not work. You need the Europeans, you need the Ukrainians. Extracts from my doorstep ahead of NATO Defence Ministers meeting ↓
- After seeing a rather uncomfortable King Abdullah in the Oval Office, Egypt‘s al-Sisi will cancel his White House visit if the forceful displacement of Palestinians is on agenda. Haven’t seen Arab states this united in their opposition to the U.S. - perhaps since 2003…
- This website documents how many U.S. jobs have been lost as a result of the freeze on foreign assistance. So far, employers or employees have reported 10,758 jobs cut since the stop work orders landed on Jan. 24
- Reposted by Bernie KausslerThe erasure of the Jan. 6 records comes while the administration is also seeking to whitewash the teaching of U.S. history, threatening to withhold funds from schools that teach about America’s troubled history of racial and gender discrimination. By @alecmac.bsky.social
- Reposted by Bernie Kaussler“I’m eager to see an audit,” said Sen. Roger Wicker (R., Miss.) But Wicker also said, “I have felt for a long time that USAID is our way to combat China’s Belt and Road Initiative.” “So, we need an aid program to match the Chinese effort,” he said. www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
- Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia left the Russian power grid yesterday and synchronized with the EU network today. Quite the symbolism as the final link to the former USSR of those 3 EU members has been cut.
- Marco Rubio: „U.S. gov vessels can now transit the Panama Canal without charge fees..“ Panamanian President, Jose Mulino today: „I completely reject that statement.“ Looks like one of the two is making up things…. 👀
- Reposted by Bernie KausslerThis is my vote for the other thing to care about and call your reps about this week. An unelected billionaire should not have control of the central money spigot of the United States.
- Reposted by Bernie KausslerJust thought it was worth noting that a pretty solid majority of the American public does not support Donald Trump’s foreign policy moves. Like, at all. danieldrezner.substack.com/p/the-pretty...
- Reposted by Bernie KausslerNo country is immune to the far right. No country is immune to the normalization of the far right.
- Subtle Scandinavian solidarity. The Finish president, Norwegian and Swedish prime minsters at the Danish prime minister‘s dinner table yesterday. Mette Frederiksen’s message was: „We are not alone. We have several close allies with whom we share values.“
- Reposted by Bernie KausslerSwedish authorities boarded a Maltese-flagged ship seized in connection with the latest breach of cables running along the bottom of the Baltic Sea to begin an investigation into the matter, security police said reut.rs/3EbRUBg
- Reposted by Bernie Kaussler[This post could not be retrieved]
- Reposted by Bernie KausslerToday’s damage to a subsea cable in the Baltic Sea is the latest incident affecting the critical infrastructure of EU Member States. Tomorrow, I will discuss with Foreign Ministers how to better deter and respond to hybrid threats amid Russia's intensified campaign.
- This isn’t really getting enough coverage in US outlets: Trump insists Greenland should be US territory; and calls Denmark’s resistance „unfriendly“
- Whenever I explain the difference between the realist balance of power and balance of threats theories, I use Canada and the U.S. as example: „Countries balance against threats not just power. Canada does not feel threatened by its southern neighbor“. This doesn’t really work anymore. #polsci
- Five current and former senior European officials briefed on the call said the conversation had gone very badly.
- Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, is tasked with ending the war in Ukraine within 100 days.… arbitrary deadlines aren’t exactly helpful for mediators….
- In the Lebanese elections for president, one MP voted for #BernieSanders. Bernie bros seem to be everywhere. I suppose that would make Lebanese politics even more exciting! #polisci
- The far-right AFD in Karlsruhe, Germany distributed over 20,000 deportation tickets, „Abschiebetickets“, in citizens‘ mailboxes. A clear incitement to racial hatred!
- "It is logical and systematic. Musk is strengthening those who are weakening Europe. A weak Europe is in the interest of those for whom regulation is an inappropriate limitation of their power,"
- Reposted by Bernie KausslerDie Springer Gruppe ist seit Gründung mehr medialer Spaltpilz denn Garant der Meinungsfreiheit. Heute ein um Faktenfreiheit bemühter, fossil wie rechtsaffin lodernder Propagandakanal im Zeitungspelz, dessen Vollendung als Abrissbirne der Demokratie sich Döpfner offenbar zum Karriereziel gemacht hat.
- In public, Iranian officials called for a diplomatic solution. But officials in Tehran had concluded that Mr. al-Assad would not survive, according to six Iranian officials, and Iran began quietly withdrawing its diplomatic and military staff from Damascus.
- Reposted by Bernie KausslerSeems we’re going for a trifecta
- Claiming territory on historic, religious, or, in the case of Trump, economic grounds—such as "sweat equity" over #Panama would still amount to conquest by force. Recent examples: China - Tibet India / Pakistan - Kashmir Iraq – Kuwait Russia – Crimea Israel – Palestinian and Syrian territories
- Syria, Turkey and Qatar enjoy a good amount of leverage over the EU now that the new Syrian government could agree to be a strategic energy corridor, connecting Qatari natural gas to Europe. Throughout the war, Russia opposed the proposed pipeline via Syria to ensure dominance of Gazprom in Europe.
- Reposted by Bernie KausslerOur top diplomatic representative returns to Damascus. We are stepping up our support to the population immediately with a Humanitarian Air Bridge. And we start preparing early recovery, with our annual Syria conferences.
- Reposted by Bernie KausslerThis could be a pretty big deal, depending on outcome... One to watch. 👀
- #Syria’s foreign policy choices: 🇹🇷Turkey: let‘s purge all Kurdish militias! 🇺🇸US: leave Kurdish militias alone and break up with Russia! 🇷🇺Russia: can we keep our naval base? 🇮🇷Iran: can we stay friends? 🇮🇱Israel: if you become friends with Iran, it’s over! 🇪🇺EU: so happy for you, but please be nice!
- The clearest sign that doomsday predictions of the future of Syrian politics may not come true is that an American prisoner under Assad is being sent home by the transitional authorities. A far cry from the ISIS/ Taliban- nightmare scenarios some folks in the US feared. ( so far!)
- Syria's new leadership said it had freed a US citizen called Travis Timmerman on Thursday, adding it was ready to cooperate with Washington to look for Americans disappeared under the ousted president Bashar al-Assad ➡️ u.afp.com/5yf8
- Pentagon spokesperson refuted Rep. Jeff Van Drew’s (R-N.J.) claim that #Iran had launched drones recently spotted in New Jersey via a mothership somewhere off the U.S. East Coast. After recent congressional hearings on UAP‘s, these drones probably aren’t from China either. 🛸 #geopolitics
- Not surprisingly, the Qataris are right at the forefront as #Syria‘s factions are negotiating a new future. They are one of the few powers that supported rebels from the onset. Of course, it also helps that they are loaded. 💰🛢️ I suspect a lot of reconstruction aid will come from Qatar too.
- Reposted by Bernie KausslerRe-upping this from 3 weeks ago, because the polls have not moved. At all. #germany #polls #farright
- Reposted by Bernie KausslerHow can we understand the electoral breakthrough of far-right parties in countries previously considered 'immune'? By looking at the role of the media and understanding how the far right can enjoy a reputational shield. New paper out on @govandopp.bsky.social 📢 www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
- As Israeli forces are entering this 155-sq mile buffer zone and striking targets inside Syria, we ought to be mindful that the UN DOF just celebrated 50 years of observing the ceasefire between Israel and Syria. 🇺🇳 peacekeepers have been there since 1974 to implement their mandate. #academicsky
- To folks who say why no ICC charges against Assad. Unlike, Palestine, Syria is not a member state of the Rome Statute. While the UNSC could authorize the ICC to come after non members (eg Sudan), Russia has shielded all war criminals . Since 2011, Russia has vetoed 17 resolutions on Syria. #syria
- Trump posted that the US “SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO” with the conflict in Syria. Well, the U.S. has 900 troops in Syria and the DoD just said they will remain there to fight ISIS. Yesterday, the U.S. Air Force also struck over 75 ISIS targets in Syria. For now, isolationism is not on the menu.
- Since 2011, about 30,000 people have been executed in Sednaya prison.
- Iron execution press in #SednayaPrison . After he is hanged, they put him in the press and press him to become like paper. His body and bones are crushed. There are blood channels under the press. Then his remains are put in a bag and disposed of outside the prison. #Syria #سجن_صيدنايا
- Reposted by Bernie KausslerThe revolutionaries are still struggling to navigate the sprawling prison complex, which is built like a labyrinth. #SednayaPrison #Syria
- Reposted by Bernie KausslerDo you hear me, we are here and we will take u out just pray. This is a dialogue between one of the people who are trying to get out the detainees in the basement from #Sednaya_Prison .
- So far the biggest winner of the Syrian regime’s collapse is Turkey. Assad’s refusal to reconcile with the opposition, had prompted Erdogan‘s support for the offensive. New status quo may help to marginalize Kurdish groups in Syria but also gives Erdogan leverage about future of Syria. #syria
- Massive shifts in the balance of power in the Middle East. With Assad‘s fall, the Iranian government has lost its most loyal Arab ally in the region. Hezbollah‘s strength has been decimated (for now ) which leaves Tehran‘s „axis of resistance“ in the region in tatters. #syria #iran #geopolitcs
- Reposted by Bernie Kaussler🚨🚨Reuters news break — Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has fled Damascus, taking off for an undisclosed location. www.reuters.com/world/middle...
