Jessica Riedl
Fellow @Brookings.edu. Past: Manhattan Institute (2017-25) Sen. Portman chief economist (2011-17), budget policy for 4 prez campaigns. Fiercely independent and tribeless. Views mine.🏳️🌈
- NEW from me @thedispatchmedia.bsky.social. Congressional GOPers are proposing Reconciliation 2.0 to finally achieve all the big spending cuts they could not get in the OBBBA. In reality, it would surely become yet another panderfest of tax cuts & spending hikes. 🧵 thedispatch.com/article/repu...
- For a party holding the presidency and Congress, reconciliation has become an annual "Get out of jail free" card for all the tax cuts & spending hikes they could never pass under regular order. Since 2001, the reconciliation process has added $16 trillion in new debt.
- GOP deficit hawks - despite months of mapping out offsetting spending cuts - were routed in Reconciliation 1.0 (the OBBBA). Achieving 217 of 220 House GOP votes for most of their bold offsets proved impossible. They couldn't even quietly bury them in a must-pass tax cut bill.
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View full threadThe best way to stop the runaway train of budget-busting reconciliation bills is to not let them out of the station in the first place. Even with the best of intentions, fiscal hawks should not awaken the sleeping giant of reconciliation in 2026. (/F)
- Reposted by Jessica Riedlhow did this guy run an investment bank?
- NEW from me in @thedispatchmedia.bsky.social. DOGE's most successful program elimination was itself, as it has reportedly closed down. I explain why its failure to deeply slash spending was so predictable, and what that means for deficits. 🧵 thedispatch.com/article/why-...
- The Treasury spending tables suggest DOGE savings perhaps in the neighborhood of $14 billion. This figure represents: 0.2% of the $7 trillion federal budget. 5% of the $275 billion net spending increase in 2025. 0.7% of Elon Musk's $2 trillion goal. 😳
- Problem #1: DOGE was conceptually flawed. 2/3 of spending goes to Social Security, Medicare, defense, veterans, & interest that were mostly off the table. Even the remaining 1/3 included spending MAGA likes. So DOGE was left to make small, symbolic cuts to "trigger the libs."
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View full threadUltimately, DOGE was yet another gimmicky attempt to close the $1.8 trillion budget deficit with smoke & mirrors. Sorry, there are no shortcuts. Fixing the budget will require a combination of real benefit cuts, and real tax increases. And not just for your political enemies. /F
- Professional news: After 8 years and 300 publications at the Manhattan Institute … … I’m excited to join the Brookings Institution as a budget & tax fellow in its Tax Policy Center. New home, but same, center-right, fiscal hawk, free market economic analysis.
- Let's say you take out a $400,000 mortgage loan at 6.25% - and choose a 50-year mortgage instead of 30 years. In return for saving $283 monthly, you will pay an extra $421,302 in interest over the life of the loan. Or if you sell at 15 years, will have paid down just $29,000 in equity. Not good.
- Reposted by Jessica RiedlAs always, it's appalling at the same time it's so cheap, tawdry, and embarrassing. What a pathetic, shabby little gangster.
- NEW from me @thedispatchmedia.bsky.social. Secretary Bessent has proclaimed that monthly budget figures show a rapidly declining budget deficit. But he is confusing small timing shifts for major policy changes. Deficits are set to continue rising. 🧵 thedispatch.com/article/defi...
- Secretary Bessent brags that deficits fell from $1,307 billion in the first half of FY 2025 (Oct-Mar) down to $468 billion in the second half of the year (Apr-Sept). He credits Trump's aggressive savings policies.
- The problem? Monthly deficits *always* shrink in the second half of the fiscal year because the later April-Sept period includes big revenues from the April 15th tax deadline, and 3 of the 4 quarterly corporate tax due dates. Falling deficits are due to tax due dates, not policy.
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View full threadSo, no, there is no deficit reduction miracle. DOGE, tariffs, oil & gas revenues - all were supposed to balance the budget and pay off the debt. Instead, big tax cuts and spending hikes pushed projected deficits towards $3T-$4T within a decade. Ignore the spin, watch the data.
- I'm trying to figure out how sending $7 billion to Africa to save 20 million lives from HIV (many of whom are kids) is an outrage (America First! We can't afford it) ... yet somehow sending $20 billion to Argentina is affordable, wise, and responsible.
- Yes, the final cost will be less than $20 billion (depending on what we do with the pesos and whether we can get full value dollars back), but even a $5 billion final cost could have saved millions of lives in Africa. Seems a higher priority to me.
- Reposted by Jessica Riedlthis shit would be a bit much for news anchors in Pyongyang
- NEW from me. Trump wants to take over the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates in part because he believes it will cut federal budget interest costs by "$1 Trillion per year." In @thedispatchmedia.bsky.social, I show that fiscal dominance would NOT reduce interest costs very much. 🧵
- First, yes, interest costs are burying the budget. 2021 - $352 billion 2025 - $1 trillion (approx) 2035 - $2 trillion (projected) Interest has soared past Medicaid, defense, and Medicare to become the second-biggest item in the federal budget.
- $9 trillion of the federal debt will roll over in the next year, plus $2 trillion in new borrowing equals $11 trillion subject to new interest rates. Also, the market determines the interest rate paid by the Treasury on its debt, and the Fed Funds rate has limited impact there.
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View full threadIt's a lazy gimmick to think we can keep cutting taxes and expanding spending and just pay for it by forcing the Fed to make government borrowing nearly free. Politicians need to stop looking for easy, fake solutions and make the tough decisions on deficits. (/F)
- Trump campaigned on a trade war and immigration crackdown. And farm-heavy counties still gave him 78% of the vote. Sorry guys, you voted for this. Enjoy the consequences!
- NEW from me. In the @washingtonpost.com. I examine the emerging debt crises that are destabilizing the British and French governments - and how America faces similar economic & fiscal challenges on an even deeper level. 🧵 www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
- All 3 countries face: 1) Aging population and low fertility - which along with productivity slows econ growth. 2) It also means deficits from soaring old-age spending & slowing tax revenues. 3) Interest rates steeply rising on these growing deficits
- The U.K. is in deep trouble, and after last year's tax hikes were plowed into new spending, the deficit continued growing amid calls for even larger tax hikes.
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View full thread(And before you shout "easy, just the tax rich!", watch the video below. It can save some money, but nearly enough). bsky.app/profile/jess...
- NEW from me. My new video for @reason.com says fine, tax the rich, but recognize that it cannot eliminate more than a small fraction of the soaring budget deficits. And no, those old 91% tax rates and the European tax systems do not prove otherwise. www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0x1...
- MAGA Twitter is really a sight to behold right now. One cis white male tragically murdered another, and somehow the *transgender community* is responsible and must be stripped of their constitutional rights. It is just dangerous ugliness from unhinged, fanatical bigots.
- This political era is all about vengeance & escalation. Impose maximum suffering on the other side. They started the war, and they are evil, sick, and must be destroyed. Civility & grace is for losers & wimps. Real leaders fight - no apologies, no mercy. We desperately need de-escalators.
- NEW from me. My new video for @reason.com says fine, tax the rich, but recognize that it cannot eliminate more than a small fraction of the soaring budget deficits. And no, those old 91% tax rates and the European tax systems do not prove otherwise. www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0x1...
- Here's the article version. It explains that taxing the rich can surely be *part* of a broad deficit reduction deal - and even suggests policies - but we still must fix SocSec & Medicare and probably raise middle class taxes too. The budget math is unforgiving. reason.com/video/2025/0...
- And for anyone who really wants to explore further, here is my 2023 study walking through all the modeling and data in excruciating detail. manhattan.institute/article/the-...
- Reposted by Jessica Riedlsenior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, former chief economist to Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) & director of budget and spending policy for Marco Rubio’s 2016 presidential campaign👇🏽
