Michael Kofman
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment. Defense analysis with a focus on the Russian and Ukrainian militaries.
- The latest Russia contingency episode is out. I sat down with @ryanevans.bsky.social to talk about the Russia-Ukraine war, looking at the key issues, insights gained, and questions answered over the course of 2025. @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
- If you want to listen, but the full @WarontheRocks membership is too expensive for you, there is a new tier that just focuses on Russia/Ukraine. warontherocks.com/russia-ukrai...
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- Latest Russia Contingency is out. Rob Lee and I talk about our recent impressions from a field study in Ukraine. We discuss what’s changed since July, key trends, and look at different parts of the front. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
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- As the situation in Pokrovsk becomes critical, and AFU reinforces the pocket to stabilize the flanks, there's considerable attention now to how this battle is unfolding. A few thoughts on the situation. 1/ (DeepStateMap)
- The situation around Pokrovsk deteriorated over time as Russian forces kept infiltrating through the southern part of the city. Ukrainian positions grew increasingly thin. Worsening weather, especially fog, enabled Russian troops to get more men into the city in recent weeks. 2/
- Earlier in the summer AFU units were working to stem the infiltration. The Russian advance at Dobropillia to some extent forced a shift of attention & resources. A lack of operational reserves has long resulted in a ‘firefighting’ approach to counter advances across the line. 3/
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View full threadPokrovsk is not insignificant, but the economic and logistical value of the city was lost long ago last fall. Losing the city now is far less critical than preserving the force to ensure a sustainable defense in the medium to long term. 13/
- Check out the latest Russia Contingency. I join the head of Lasar’s Group, one of Ukraine’s best and lesser known drone units to talk about their experience, how drone use is evolving, adaptation on both sides, and what the future holds. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
- Latest WOTR podcast is out. I join @massdara.bsky.social and @ryanevans.bsky.social to talk about the current course of the war, recent developments, and policy trajectory here in DC. @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/2025/10/hold...
- Latest Russia Contingency is out. I’m joined by Austin Long and Pranay Vaddi to talk about the fall 2022 nuclear crisis. Was it a crisis? What do we think happened? Three years on, do we know now that can shed more light on this period? warontherocks.com/episode/ther... @warontherocks.bsky.social
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- The latest Russia Contingency is out. I join BG Jyri Raitasalo to talk about how Finnish Defense Forces are changing training, perspectives on lessons learned from the Russia-Ukraine war, deterrence/defense l as part of NATO, and more. @WarOnTheRocks t.co/wnKrcOxLug
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- Since security guarantees are back in discussion, for those interested in the requirements, tasks, and what a European deterrence force might look like - check out this piece from back in March with Jack Watling. warontherocks.com/2025/03/will...
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- Recently met this great UA customs inspector
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- Latest WOTR podcast is out. I join @ryanevans.bsky.social to talk about the state of the front, manpower, drones, and the recent disruption of aid from the United States. Open to all. @WarOnTheRocks open.spotify.com/episode/11Cb...
- Some things here may be dated but I still found it useful. If you follow drone use in Ukraine then you likely know a lot of what’s in this piece. Yet the perspective is nonetheless helpful. warontherocks.com/2025/06/i-fo...
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- NYT on the decision to strike Iran. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/22/u...
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- Latest RC is out. I join @justin-br0nk.bsky.social and Guy Plopsky to talk about the Israeli vs Russian air campaign. Why one succeed and the other failed. How can these different wars be usefully compared? What are observations or lessons learned. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
- Assuming 40% operational readiness in Russian LRA the confirmed impact of damaged and destroyed aircraft is 25-30% of the fleet. If readiness is lower then this goes to 35%+. These are rough estimates.
- The damage to 6 other bombers is unclear. Max impact could therefore be 40%-50% of operationally ready aircraft if all 20 were affected. However it looked like some Tu-22M3 hit were not operable.
- For folks who missed it. I sat down with the head of Estonian Military Intelligence for a conversation on the Russia-Ukraine war, how he sees the future Russia threat, and the security dynamic in the Baltic. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
- Another Russia Contingency episode is out. Rob Lee and @massdara.bsky.social join me for a good discussion on the SBU operation, what we know, implications, and exchange views on the current course of the war. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
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- Where different BDA assessments seem to converge. Destroyed: 7 Tu-95MS, 4 Tu-22M3, 1 An-12. Damaged: 1 Tu-95MS, 2 Tu-22M3 , 2 A-50s (probably non-operational). Additionally attacked & possibly damaged: 4 Tu-22M3 (status unclear), and 1 Tu-95MS.
- The second part of our Russia contingency episode with Richard Connolly and Alexandra Prokopenko is out. We continue the discussion on Russia’s economic outlook, debates about how Moscow is financing the war, defense spending, and more. @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
- Interesting investigative piece. danwatch.dk/en/serious-s...
- Latest Russia Contingency is out. I’m joined by Richard Connolly and Alexandra Prokopenko to talk about the state of the Russian economy. We look at oil prices, sanctions, and discuss different scenarios for the coming months. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
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- Part 2 of my discussion with @shashj.bsky.social is out. Come for mass precision and maneuver warfare, stay for observations from the war relevant to European force planning and defense contingencies. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
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- Latest Russia Contingency is out. @shashj.bsky.social joins me and we switch roles. This time he asks the questions as we dive into observations and lessons from the war. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
- Interesting piece. www.iiss.org/online-analy...
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- Good conversation with @benjaminhart.bsky.social nymag.com/intelligence...
- Reposted by Michael KofmanI had another excellent conversation with @michaelkofman.bsky.social about where the war in Ukraine stands now. nymag.com/intelligence...
- Part two of the latest Russia Contingency episode is out. Rob Lee and I talk tactics, tech, and innovation, updating our views based on the last field trip. @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
- Weekend long read. There’s quite a bit in here. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
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