Daniele Garofalo
Intelligence, Security Consultant, Analyst, Lecturer: Terrorist & Insurgent Armed Groups.
https://www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com
- 🔹 Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) — Intelligence Briefs | Strategic Outlook / January 2026 📊 January 2026 confirms the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) as the dominant insurgent actor in Pakistan. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/tehrik-i-t...
- 🔎Intelligence Brief - Eyes on Jihadism | Issue #148 Monitoring Jihadist Propaganda | Week 25 – 31 January. 💻This weekly intelligence brief provides structured situational awareness based exclusively on primary jihadist propaganda sources. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/eyes-on-ji...
- 🔎Intelligence Brief - Eyes on Jihadism | Issue #148 Monitoring Jihadist Propaganda | Week 25 – 31 January. 💻This weekly intelligence brief provides structured situational awareness based exclusively on primary jihadist propaganda sources. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/eyes-on-ji...
- Islamic State | Weekly Intelligence Assessment – al-Naba Issue 532 🧠📊 I have completed a new Intelligence Brief analysing al-Naba Issue No. 532, the Islamic State’s weekly magazine. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/islamic-st...
- I’ve just completed an analysis on a topic that is still widely underestimated: the decentralized use of UAVs by tech-adaptive jihadist actors. ⚠️ www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/red-cell-n...
- New Intelligence Brief published 🔍 "Modern Warfare: Decentralization of Jihadist Capability and Operational Implications of the UAV Threat". www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/modern-war...
- 🔎Intelligence Brief - Eyes on Jihadism | Issue #145 Monitoring Jihadist Propaganda | Week 1 – 8 January. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/eyes-on-ji...
- Islamic State | Weekly Intelligence Assessment – al-Naba Issue 531 🧠📊 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/islamic-st...
- My latest analysis for the The Jamestown Foundation Terrorism Monitor is out: “Saraya Ansar al-Sunnah’s Micro-insurgency in Syria”. jamestown.org/saraya-ansar...
- My latest analysis for the Jamestown Terrorism Monitor is out: “Muhojir Tactical Leadership duo Arrested in Syria”. jamestown.org/muhojir-tact...
- “Red Cell Notes: al-Qaeda’s Cognitive Warfare in the Information Environment”. 🧠 What if counterterrorism remains tactically effective but strategically self-neutralising? Pressure does not always deter. Sometimes, it validates. ⚠️ www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/red-cell-n...
- “Cognitive Warfare in Jihadist Propaganda al-Qaeda’s Strategic Narrative on U.S. Counterterrorism”. 🌍 The battlefield is not only physical. It is cognitive. 🧠 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/cognitive-...
- 📍Red Cell Notes If AQAP Wins the Cognitive Fight in Southern Yemen This Red Cell analysis adopts an adversarial cognitive perspective to stress-test prevailing counter-terrorism and stabilisation assumptions. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/red-cell-n...
- “Weaponized Narratives and Operational Signalling. AQAP’s Cognitive Warfare in Yemen”. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/weaponized...
- 🧠 Executive Intelligence Briefing Global Jihadist & Insurgent Threat Assessment Rolling Forecast (30–90 Days): January–March 2026. 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/executive-...
- 🔎Intelligence Brief - Eyes on Jihadism | Issue #145 Monitoring Jihadist Propaganda | Week 1 – 8 January. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/eyes-on-ji...
- Islamic State | Weekly Intelligence Assessment – al-Naba Issue 529 🧠📊 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/islamic-st...
- "Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahidin — Strategic Threat Outlook | December 2025”. 📊 Operational Trends, Regional Risk, and Forecast ➡️ Read the report here: www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/harakat-al...
- "JNIM — Strategic Threat Outlook | December 2025”. 📊 Operational Trends, Risk Assessment, and Forecast ➡️ Read the report here: www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/jnim-strat...
- "Islamic State in Middle East and Asia — Strategic Threat Outlook | December 2025”. 📊 Operational Trends, Regional Destabilization, and Forecast. ➡️ Read the report here: www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/islamic-st...
- “Islamic State in Africa — Strategic Threat Outlook | December 2025”. 📊 Continental Operational Trends, Risk Assessment, and Forecast. ➡️ Read the report here: www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/islamic-st...
- “A year of TTP terrorist attacks. Operational escalation, territorial entrenchment, and the persistence of a national jihadist insurgency in Pakistan (2025)”. TTP in 2025 is not just surviving — it is escalating. Free Access. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/a-year-of-...
- “A year of Islamic State terrorist attacks: resilience without resurgence. High-frequency violence, low strategic return, and the consolidation of Africa as the movement’s core theater”. 🔍 Strategic Outlook www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/a-year-of-...
- Islamic State | 90-Day Threat Forecast (Jan–Mar 2026) ⏱️📊 📌 Decision-oriented forecast for the next 30–90 days. #ThreatForecast #Counterterrorism #IntelligenceAnalysis #SecurityStudies www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/islamic-st...
- Islamic State | Executive Annual Threat Assessment (2025–2026) 🌍🧠 2025 confirms a clear trend: ➡️ Africa is IS’s main operational centre of gravity ➡️ Strategy prioritises endurance over escalation ➡️ Low-intensity violence sustains long-term pressure www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/islamic-st...
- Islamic State | Weekly Intelligence Assessment – al-Naba Issue 528 🧠📊 I have completed a new Intelligence Brief analysing al-Naba Issue No. 528 weekly magazine, based on a multi-source analytical approach (OSINT, IMINT, SOCMINT, Digital HUMINT). www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/islamic-st...
- 🔹 Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) — Intelligence Briefs | December 2025 📊 December 2025 confirms the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) as the dominant insurgent actor in Pakistan. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/tehrik-i-t...
- New publication | Strategic Outlook / Cognitive Domain Analysis 🧠⚠️ 👉 The full analysis is available here: www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/from-narra...
- New publication | Cognitive Domain Analysis 🧠⚠️ "From Gaza to Sydney: al-Qaeda’s Globalisation of Cognitive Jihad. Incitement, Lone-Actor Enablement, and Strategic Messaging in a Recent AQAP Media Release". 👉 Full analysis available here: www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/from-gaza-...
- 🔍 New Intelligence Brief | AQAP & the Cognitive Domain 📄 The full report is available via gated download on my website. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/jihadist-c...
- Islamic State | Weekly Intelligence Assessment – al-Naba Issue 527 🧠📊 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/islamic-st...
- 🧠 Seasonal Incitement, Strategic Signaling Cognitive Domain Assessment of al-Naba’ 527 Editorial. 📊 Full assessment in the Cognitive Domain section. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/seasonal-i...
- 🧠 Islamic State Engineering Persistence IS Cognitive Warfare through al-Naba’ 527 📊 Full analysis in the Cognitive Domain section. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/islamic-st...
- 🔍 A Diffuse and Enduring Threat Strategic Assessment of the Islamic State after al-Naba’ 527 📊 Full analysis in the Strategic Threat Outlook section. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/a-diffuse-...
- 🧠 Strategic Threat Outlook | November 2025 Ittehad-ul-Mujahidin Pakistan (IMP) Emerging Actor, Operational Trends, and Risk Assessment www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/security-r...
- Eyes on Jihadism – Intelligence Brief | Issue #143 Monitoring Jihadist Propaganda | Week 16–23 December This weekly intelligence brief provides structured situational awareness based exclusively on primary jihadist propaganda sources. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/eyes-on-ji...
- I have published an analysis based on a primary jihadist source showing that the Islamic State is not relinquishing its strategic control over violence. 📊 Threat assessment, early warning indicators, intelligence & policy assessment. 👉 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/ambiguous-...
- 📰 New analysis available on my website: Analysis No. 526 of the al-Naba weekly (Islamic State). 📊This issue explores the propaganda narratives and operational claims of IS provinces. 📖 Read the full analysis and subscribe for updates: 👉 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/analysis-n...
- 🔍 New analysis available: Security Risk Monitoring and Threat Assessment:Islamic State in Africa – November 2025 Full analysis available here: www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/security-r...
- 📰 New analysis available on my website: Analysis No. 525 of the al-Naba weekly (Islamic State). 📊This issue explores the propaganda narratives and operational claims of IS provinces. 📖 Read the full analysis and subscribe for updates: 👉 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/analysis-n...
- 🔍 New analysis available on my website “Security Risk Monitoring and Threat Assessment of al-Shabaab in Somalia — Military Operations, November 2025.” 👉 Explore the full study here: 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/security-r...
- 🔍 New issue of my weekly analysis — Eyes on Jihadism #141 This week (1 - 8 December), I monitored and analyzed jihadist propaganda trends and narratives. 📖 The full analysis is available for open and free reading here: 👉 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/eyes-on-ji...
- 🔍 New analysis available on my website: “Security Risk Monitoring and Threat Assessment: Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) — Military Operations, November 2025.” 📊 Data-driven insights 📸 Graphs 👉 Explore the full study here: www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/security-r...
- 📰 New analysis available on my website: Analysis No. 524 of the al-Naba weekly (Islamic State). 📊This issue explores the propaganda narratives and operational claims of IS provinces. 📖 Read the full analysis and subscribe for updates: 👉 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/analysis-n...
- 📊📈 In Novemeber 2025, JNIM conducted numerous operations in Africa. What does this mean for regional security? Explore the full analysis, browse the data and visualisations, and share your thoughts on these trends. The report is available here 👇 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/security-r...
- 📰 New analysis available on my website: Analysis No. 523 of the al-Naba weekly (Islamic State). 📊This issue explores the propaganda narratives and operational claims of IS provinces. 📖 Read the full analysis and subscribe for updates: 👉 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/analysis-n...
- 🔍 New issue of my weekly analysis — Eyes on Jihadism #139 This week (16 - 22 November), I monitored and analyzed jihadist propaganda trends and narratives. 📖 The full analysis is available for open and free reading here: 👉 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/eyes-on-ji...
- 📰 New analysis available on my website: Analysis No. 522 of the al-Naba weekly (Islamic State). 📊This issue explores the propaganda narratives and operational claims of IS provinces. 📖 Read the full analysis and subscribe for updates: 👉 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/analysis-n...
- I have just published a new analysis on my website: 📊 Title: "The aesthetics of violence: ISCAP infographics and three months of attacks in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Analysis of ISCAP infographics in al-Naba 522". 📖 Free access here: www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/the-aesthe...
- 🔍 New analysis available on my website “Security Risk Monitoring and Threat Assessment: Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) — Military Operations, October 2025.” 📊 Data-driven insights 📸 Visual documentation and graphs 👉 Explore the full study here: 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/security-r...
