CEPREMAP
Centre pour la Recherche Économique et ses applications. Assurer une interface entre le monde académique et les administrations économiques.
- Debt management is easy in the United States, as the nominal growth forecasts has been revised upward, and r-g remains comfortably negative. The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/1...
- For 2025, the OECD revised up its growth forecasts for the United States and France by 0.2 percentage points, and for the Euro Area by 0.1 percentage point. The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/1...
- Growth is stronger in France than in the rest of the Euro Area, particularly relative to Germany, while inflation is running at roughly half the rate. The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/1...
- Since the dissolution of the Parliament in 2024, the yield spread on French public debt relative to Germany has risen by 0.3 pp while it has narrowed by 0.4 pp for Italy and by 0.3 pp for Greece and Spain. The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/1...
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- Good news: after dropping below 2% in May, inflation has risen to 2.2% in the Euro Area (from 0.6% and 2.1% in May in France and Germany to 1.1% and 2.4% in September), the risk of recession is receding. The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/1...
- OECD growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were revised upward by 0.2 percentage points for most countries, but not for France, where the forecast is unchanged and remains below previous growth rates. The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/0...
- French government bond yields have risen above those of Spain and Greece. The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/0...
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- With a GDP deflator at 1.8% and a real growth at 0.6%, nominal growth should be at 2.4% in 2025 in France. It is below the rate on new borrowing (the 10-year bond yield is at 3.2%), increasing the risk of a debt explosion. The new Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/0...
- At the end of June, unemployment rates in the USA and the Eurozone (particularly in Germany and France) remained moderate: let's hope they will remain so despite political uncertainties. The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/0...
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- After a difficult final quarter of 2024 marked by the no-confidence vote against the Barnier government, France is catching up with EU growth, posting stronger growth in the second quarter of 2025. The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/0...
- Inflation in France remains unusually low—about half the level seen in other countries—and even just half of France’s own core inflation, as falling commodity prices are dragging headline inflation down. The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/0...
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- La Note de l'i-MIP écrite par des membres du Cepremap est en ligne 👉 i-mip.eu/publications...
- 📢 La Note 2025-07 de @iMIP_institute est en ligne ! 🔗 i-mip.eu/publications... Coécrite par des membres du Cepremap : F. Langot, @jocmaillard.bsky.social , @malmbergselma.bsky.social, @fabientripier.bsky.social et J.-O. Hairault. 👇 Résumé en quelques points clés :
- 📢 Le Cepremap est heureux d’annoncer la parution de l’e-book de l’@iMIP_institute ➡️ i-mip.eu/wp-content/u... Plusieurs de nos chercheurs y ont contribué, autour du thème : les choix budgétaires de la France pour 2026. Voici un aperçu des analyses 👇
- As has been the case for over a year, France's debt continues to rise, unlike what has been observed this past quarter in the UK and the United States. The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/0...
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- The OECD’s growth forecasts for 2025 have been revised downward: -0.6 percentage points for the US and -0.2 points for France compared to March forescasts… bad news for public finances. The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/0...
- Inflation decreased, especially in France (0.9%). The dollar continues to depreciate, having fallen from 1.04 to 1.15 EUR in a month. This economic environment led the ECB to cut again its rate by 25 bp. The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/0...
- Hommage à Jean-Pierre Laffargue, dont les recherches pionnières sur les méthodes numériques et leurs applications à l'économie française ont jeté les bases des travaux actuels en macroéconomie au Cepremap. www.cepremap.fr/2025/04/homm...
- In 2024, French public debt increased by 3 percentage points (from 110% to 113% of GDP), while the deficit rose by only 0.1 pp (from 5.7% to 5.8%): a difficult economic environment is driving up the debt. The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/0...
- With price inflation at 1.7% and wage inflation at 2.9%, French purchasing power grew in the fourth quarter of 2024. The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/0...
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- Inflation remains high (2.8% in the US and Germany), and financial indicators are dropping (-10 points for the Nasdaq since January): transatlantic policies do not seem business-friendly!!! The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/0...
- The ECB decided to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in response to high uncertainty, which depresses demand and delays projects (GDP forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have declined). The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/0...
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- Traditionally perceived as safer in the US than in Europe, investments in companies are now considered more secure in Europe... The White House announcements do not seem to be interpreted as pro-business! The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/0...
- While American stock markets (S&P 500 and Nasdaq) have been stagnating since early January 2025, the main European index (Eurostoxx 50) is growing at a fast pace. Do markets have more confidence in Europe? The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/0...
- Inflation remains stable and very low in France (at 1.8%), while it is slightly increasing in the USA (rising from 2.9% to 3%) and in Euro Area (rising from 2.4% to 2.5%). The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/0...
- Economic growth difference between the US and the Euro Area increased in the fourth quarter of 2024 as growth was negative in France and Germany. The latest Macroeconomic Outlook is online 👉 www.cepremap.fr/depot/2025/0...
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