CCDD
Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics. Research on mathematical modeling of Infectious Diseases.
Funded opportunities for students/researchers from under-represented groups.
- Join us TODAY at 1PM ET for our #IDEpi Seminar presented by Robbie Goldstein, Commissioner of the Massachusetts Department of Public Health . Register for Zoom at hsph.me/IDEPI26
- Join us THURS 2/5 at 1PM ET with Robbie Goldstein, Commissioner of the Massachusetts Department of Public Health for our #IDEpi Seminar Series. Register for Zoom at hsph.me/IDEPI26.
- New publication! Comparing Strategies to Introduce Two New Antibiotics for Gonorrhea: A Modeling Study featuring authors: @mckline98.bsky.social, @kroster.bsky.social, @dhelekal.bsky.social, @rumpl-er.bsky.social, and @yhgrad.bsky.social. Read it here at bit.ly/3Z1Zplh
- New publication: Individual and population-level risk factors for new HIV infections among adults in Eastern and Southern Africa. Read from authors including @jeff-imai-eaton.bsky.social at bit.ly/3Ngxzz6
- New preprint by PhD student Alex Zapf and @mlipsitch.bsky.social: Leveraging Limited Testing Data for Early Detection of Emerging Infectious Disease Outbreaks. Read it at bit.ly/3LmM83F
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- New preprint: Taking injectable PrEP to scale: Optimising the value of lenacapavir for South Africa’s HIV response. Read more from authors including CCDD's @jeff-imai-eaton.bsky.social at bit.ly/4s6byD1
- New preprint by @pantbinod.bsky.social and Mauricio Santillana: The Paradox of Neglecting Changes in Behavior: How Standard Epidemic Models Misestimate Both Transmissibility and Final Epidemic Size. Read more at bit.ly/48NuLlq
- New preprint featuring CCDD authors Léa Cavalli, @bradfordptaylor.bsky.social, Beau Schaeffer, and @billhanage.bsky.social: SARS-CoV-2 Intra-host Variation Shows Evidence of Transmission and Convergent Evolution in a University Surveillance Cohort. Read it at bit.ly/4pLO4BO
- U.S. gonorrhea rates fell in 2022 and 2023 after nearly a decade of increases—new paper by @kroster.bsky.social and @yhgrad.bsky.social maps out possible drivers, current evidence, and the data needed to understand what is causing the decline. Read more at bit.ly/4aWmc9i
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- New publication from CCDD’s Léa Cavalli, @billhanage.bsky.social, & collaborators: bit.ly/4rF0Rr3
- Reposted by CCDDNew preprint: with increasing resistance to ceftriaxone, the last recommended antibiotic for gonorrhea, we urgently need new drugs. Two--zoliflodacin & gepotdiacin--are up for approval by the FDA in Dec. Here we show a point mutation can result in cross-resistance. www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...
- Reposted by CCDDNow out in @natcomms.nature.com Kudos to @tylim.bsky.social and @jameshay.bsky.social for a huge effort and thanks to all the collaborators for their hard work. See the final version here: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
- How do you track an ongoing epidemic, especially without large-scale testing? We explored the use of routinely collected RT-qPCR cycle threshold values in our new preprint out now! doi.org/10.1101/2024... 1/
- Experimental mRNA flu vaccine is more effective than conventional flu shot, but causes more side effects. @billhanage.bsky.social weighs in at @cidrap.bsky.social. Read it here at bit.ly/4o8qIo0
- New study shows that shifts in SARS‑CoV‑2 Ct value distributions can help nowcast epidemic trends, revealing both strong potential and key real‑world limitations for Ct‑based surveillance. From CCDD alumni TY Lim & @jameshay.bsky.social and faculty @yhgrad.bsky.social at bit.ly/4o37EaN
- A modeling study led by @pantbinod.bsky.social, a CCDD-affiliated postdoc in MIGHTE LAB, Northeastern University, shows fungal biocontrol could reduce malaria-carrying mosquitoes by up to 90%—full story at Northeastern Global News bit.ly/3LDJma1
- New method for approximate Bayesian inference in extended latent Gaussian models uses adaptive Gauss-Hermite quadrature—improves accuracy & speed, demonstrated on small-area model for district-level epidemic estimates in Malawi. From authors incl CCDD’s @jeff-imai-eaton.bsky.social @ bit.ly/4oLH7QA
- Reporting on calibration methods in infectious disease models is inconsistent—our new PIPO framework & scoping review reveal gaps and offer guidance to boost transparency and reproducibility. Read more from CCDD authors Emmanuelle Dankwa, Léa Cavalli, @ruchitabalasub1.bsky.social @ bit.ly/4hPBw9g
- New paper from Mozambique Instituto Nacional de Saúde and collaborators including CCDD’s @jeff-imai-eaton.bsky.social on findings from the INSIDA 2021 household survey—highlighting heterogeneous epidemic burden across districts and high burden in coastal port cities. bit.ly/47QFBpg
- New study led by Salome Kuchukhidze, @mintturonn.bsky.social & @jeff-imai-eaton.bsky.social finds that over 1 in 4 US women living w/ HIV reported past-year intimate partner violence, with pregnant women at a particularly high risk. bit.ly/47YX2F2
- Antimicrobial treatments affect both patients and those around them—these indirect effects matter. In our new paper, Juan Gago, @cboyer.bsky.social, and @mlipsitch.bsky.social present a causal framework to estimate them. Read more at bit.ly/4oRc99e
- New publication from @rumpl-er.bsky.social and @mlipsitch.bsky.social identify eight considerations to consider when including equity in future vaccine allocation models. Read them here at bit.ly/4nz8ZqC
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- Mauricio Santillana and his team at Northeastern leveraged machine learning as a "team member" to predict dengue fever outbreaks three months in advance with 80% accuracy—turning years of manual data crunching into overnight results. Read it here at bit.ly/4n2wkk9
- New modeling from Nick Menzies, @jeff-imai-eaton.bsky.social, @tedhcohen.bsky.social, and collaborators, shows that health aid cuts could lead to over 1.5 million more childhood TB deaths in LMICs by 2034. Read more at bit.ly/47HsoR2
- New research highlighting key barriers and opportunities for targeted interventions to enhance motivation, access, and use of HIV prevention among young people in Zimbabwe. Read more from the Manicaland Centre for Public Health Research including @jeff-imai-eaton.bsky.social bit.ly/3Kcznri
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New preprint reporting a large piece of work by Katherine Jia to define estimands and estimators for direct impact of vaccines with arbitrary rollout schedules arxiv.org/abs/2509.05508 with Alyssa Bilinski, @chrisboyer.bsky.social and me - Reposted by CCDD[Not loaded yet]
- “I think of antibiotics as infrastructure” @yhgrad.bsky.social interviewed for the Harvard Gazette, 'Racing against antibiotic resistance'. Read it here at bit.ly/47PdOqv
- Reposted by CCDDVery pleased to share this newly published work with Aishani Aatresh, part of her exceptional Harvard undergrad thesis. journals.asm.org/doi/10.1128/... .
- Mauricio Santillana and his team at Northeastern have developed a machine learning method that predicts dengue fever outbreaks with 80% accuracy, equipping public health officials with a powerful new tool to prepare for surges. Read it here at bit.ly/4my3DLM
- Multi-country analysis of HIV household surveys identifies large geographic & education disparities in HIV prevalence & engagement w/ HIV prevention and treatment services. Read from Adrien Allorant, @mat-mg.bsky.social, & colleagues including CCDD’s @jeff-imai-eaton.bsky.social @ bit.ly/45CZajA
- AI-designed new antibiotics take on drug-resistant gonorrhea and MRSA—breaking into unexplored chemical territory and showing promise in mouse models. Led by colleagues at MIT, with contributions from @yhgrad.bsky.social. Read more at bit.ly/4mP1OK5
- Ensemble modeling combining mechanistic, statistical, and machine learning approaches improves province-level dengue forecasts worldwide, helping public health decision-makers allocate resources more effectively. Read more from Santillana Lab and collaborators at bit.ly/4luKGs6
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- New meta-analysis updates global estimates of perinatal & breastfeeding HIV transmission & effectiveness of prevention strategies. Findings inform new UNAIDS 2025 Epidemic Estimates - aidsinfo.unaids.org. From @mkwalters3.bsky.social, @jeff-imai-eaton.bsky.social & collaborators @ bit.ly/46BpIUw
- Epidemiologist @jeff-imai-eaton.bsky.social warns funding cuts could reverse decades of gains in prevention, care. From the Harvard Gazette www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_x-...
- Check out "Are We Prepared for the Next Pandemic?"- CCDD Director, @mlipsitch.bsky.social's conversation with Sam Harris, host of the Making Sense podcast. www.samharris.org/podcasts/mak...
- Reposted by CCDDNow out in NEJM. Kudos to @dhelekal.bsky.social and @tatumdmortimer.bsky.social : www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/...
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- Bill Hanage @billhanage.bsky.social weighs in on RFK Jr’s newly appointed ACIP’s move to examine vaccines licensed seven or more years ago. Read more from BBC News at bit.ly/40rDoxk
- Permanently discontinuing HIV services currently supported by PEPFAR in S. Africa could lead to up to 296k more infections and 65k more AIDS deaths by 2028—highlighting the urgent need to sustain effective services. From the Project Linganisa team incl. @jeff-imai-eaton.bsky.social @ bit.ly/4ng03GJ
- New tool for pangenome analysis! CLARC refines bacterial gene clusters using functional annotation + linkage—not just sequence. New publication by @indragon.bsky.social & collaborators, advised by @mlipsitch.bsky.social & @billhanage.bsky.social. Read more at bit.ly/4ek0Y51
- A new study by Julia Deichmann, @mlipsitch.bsky.social and collaborators at the Sheba Medical Center, Israel uses mathematical modeling to predict antibody kinetics and duration of protection against SARS-CoV-2 following vaccination using sparse serological data. Read it here at bit.ly/43XY9mK
- Dr. Yonatan Grad @yhgrad.bsky.social, Professor of immunology and infectious diseases comments on the potential impact of recent decisions related to vaccines made by Health and Human Services Secretary (HHS) Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Read it here at bit.ly/3T2KPqX
- Congratulations to our Master's graduates 🎓: Anemone Franz, MPH and Ziyuan Zhang, SM 🎉
- Congratulations to our PhD graduates🎓: Dr. Katherine Jia, Dr. Tigist Menkir, and Dr. Sun Kim 🎉
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- Join us TODAY at 1PM ET for our #IDEpi Seminar presented by Erin Mordecai, Associate Professor in the Biology Department at Stanford University. Register for Zoom at hsph.me/IDEPI25
- Join us tomorrow 5/8 at 1PM ET for our #IDEpi Seminar presented by Erin Mordecai, Associate Professor in the Biology Department at Stanford University. Register for Zoom at hsph.me/IDEPI25
- Thanks to all who attended and presented at our 20th Freeman-Seage Symposium on Tues, Apr 29! This event was in honor of two renowned faculty members, Jonathan Freeman and George Seage for their leadership and contributions to the field of Infectious Disease Epidemiology
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- Happening this afternoon at 1PM ET: #IDEpi Seminar presented by Amy Wesolowski, Associate Professor in the Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Register for Zoom at hsph.me/IDEPI25
- Join us this Thursday at 1PM ET for our #IDEpi Seminar presented by Amy Wesolowski, Associate Professor in the Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Register for Zoom at hsph.me/IDEPI25
- New publication on STI burden in sub-Saharan Africa (2000–2024) finds rising chlamydia prevalence & key sex differences in trends. By Julia Michalow, @quintonhayre.bsky.social, Salome Kuchukhidze, and @dom-reed.bsky.social from @jeff-imai-eaton.bsky.social Lab & collaborators. bit.ly/44aXQWe
- Join us TODAY at 1pm ET: #IDEpi Seminar presented by Trevor Bedford, Professor at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center and Howard Hughes Medical Institute. Register for Zoom at hsph.me/IDEPI25
- Reposted by CCDDNew Brief Report out in @pnas.org with Katherine Budeski: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/... Focusing a virus risk ranking tool on prediction -- highlighting the importance of training models for viral emergence only on data available before emergence has happened.
- Please join us on Tues, Apr 29 for our 20th Freeman-Seage Symposium featuring presentations highlighting #IDEpi topics. This event honors two renowned faculty members, Drs. Freeman (left) and Seage (right) for their leadership and contributions to the field.
- Join us this THURSDAY at 1PM ET for our #IDEpi Seminar presented by Dr. Mathieu Maheu-Giroux, Associate Professor in the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McGill University. Regsiter for Zoom at hsph.me/IDEPI25
- New Lancet #healthpolicy review: Protecting Africa’s children from extreme risk: a runway of sustainability for PEPFAR programmes — with contributions from CCDD’s @jeff-imai-eaton.bsky.social. Read more at bit.ly/42wKn8C
