Alfie Stirling
Director of Insight & Policy at JRF | previously NEF & IPPR | "all models are wrong, but some are useful" (G Box)
- Reposted by Alfie StirlingA new way to explore UK Poverty data ⬇️ Poverty is deepening. Developing solutions to tackle this problem starts with clear, accessible evidence. To make our data more accessible we’ve published all charts, maps and tables from our UK Poverty 2026 in a new, interactive dashboard.
- Definitive table of what Government decided to spend it's new tax receipts on. 3/5: Reducing debt and borrowing. 2/5: Making people better off. Of which: 1/5: U-turn on things making people worse off. 1/5: Actually making people better off. #Budget2025
- Real average weekly earnings have risen by £2 in the past year.
- "More wage growth in first 10 months of Labour than in first 10 years of Conservatives" is true only on a technicality, due to Covid. The reality is wages have been terrible for 15 years and the present government are reproducing the average almost perfectly. That's also what people are feeling.
- Reposted by Alfie StirlingA must-read this morning - JRF's @alfie-stirling.bsky.social on the crisis in UK living standards, and how politicians can (and must) respond
- There has been essentially no growth in real wages for 10 months.
- The latest OBR forecasts suggest the average family may end the current parliament financially worse off than they were at the start. That's unlikely to be a survivable record to defend at the ballot box, but there may be a way to turn it around. New piece from me for Political Quarterly.
- Reposted by Alfie StirlingNew report: Taxing landlords more is good, actually. Since 2016, tax reforms helped slash the growth of the private rented sector and boosted first-time buyers—without hurting existing tenants. A big housing story hiding in plain sight? ⬇️
- Two fab economist roles currently going at @jrf-uk.bsky.social, do get in touch if you have any questions!
- How can you tell when a country is over adjusting for financial markets reaction/fiscal rules? When you see that had Trump announced tariffs just a few weeks earlier, it could have avoided billions in permanent cuts to low income disabled people.
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- NEW from @jrf-uk.bsky.social. Much was made of the pressures from a “changing world” on public finances. Those pressures are also impacting families, and government choices are making it worse. We find the avg. family will now be £750/yr worse off by 2029, vs today. Thread. #SpringStatement
- The main drivers are threefold. 1. Interest rates are high (up on Oct forecast), increasing unemployment and feeding through to higher housing costs. 2. Inflation (also forecast to be higher in the near-term) reducing real earnings growth. 3. Frozen tax thresholds sees % tax in earnings rise.
- Reposted by Alfie StirlingOBR's measure of living standards, RHDI, is up by £500 - largely due to stronger wage growth, including planning reforms which boost incomes. BUT when you dig into it, 3/4 of the extra income from housing services is 'imputed rents' (what families would receive if they rented out their home). 1/3
- This from the OBR on Real Household Disposable Income is key. Living standards, by their measure, are flattered by non-tangible 'imputed rent' -- that's very much *not* the stuff of "pounds in people's pockets". And even with this included, overall government policy has lowered living standards.
- The past year could prove the high point of the parliament for living standards.
- In case anyone was wondering, this is what it looks like visually.
- NEW from @jrf-uk.bsky.social Much has been made of the pressure on public finances. Household finances remain the elephant in the room. If OBR adjust their Mar forecast in line with the BoE in Feb, it will see the average family £1,400/yr worse off by 2030, compared with today. Thread.
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- Reposted by Alfie StirlingNot sure about this from the IFS. In the real world, I'm not convinced that changing an incredibly miserly income of £4,732 per year to a still-miserly £5,096 per year is going to persuade people, who would otherwise have got a job, that they're now so financially comfortable, they're not going to.
- The government has pledged to deliver "higher living standards", move from "treatment to prevention" and from "hospital to community". Cutting billions from health related social security drives a coach and horses through all three.
- Reposted by Alfie StirlingYesterday, a Government press release claimed the number of people “considered too sick to work” had "quadrupled" since the pandemic (a "383% rise"). This is incorrect. In fact, it’s not even close. It's more like 40%. This thread explains why 🧵1/7
- Turns out "one fiscal event a year" meant spending cuts twice a year, and tax rises once a year.
- Reposted by Alfie StirlingLooking ahead to the disability benefits green paper, this essay for @citizensadvice.bsky.social makes the case for a system focused on improving health outcomes. Co-authors @maddyirose.bsky.social, @victoria-anns.bsky.social & Simon Collerton We challenge the 5 big falsehoods underpinning cuts…🧵
- The speed at which US-Russia relations have gone from Cold War-esque to Molotov-Ribbentrop-esque is dizzying www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
- NEW First of three papers in a major study from @nprcoxford.bsky.social and @jrf-uk.bsky.social. TLDR - The credibility of all political parties in tackling household economic insecurity looks set to be one of the crucial dividing lines of the parliament. www.theguardian.com/business/202... 1/
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- Under the UK's current policy settings, 'growth' alone is unlikely to address poverty.
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[This post could not be retrieved] - The UK's big problem isn't bond market toddler tantrums, it's the growing risk of medium-term 'stagflation' - low growth, high inflation. (Incidentally that's also what's making the toddlers irritable in the first place.) 1/
- Reposted by Alfie StirlingJust giving these two roles a boost again. Still plenty of time to apply. Make 2025 a brilliant year - come join us!
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- We're looking for a talented macro economist and UK fiscal policy expert to lead a new programme of work at @jrf-uk.bsky.social Please do share, and drop me a line if you'd like to chat! jrf.octo-firstclass.co.uk/candidates/c...
