Adrian Raftery
Statistician at UW developing methods for demography, climate change, cluster analysis, model selection & averaging.
- Our explainer ``Pattern scaling: How local warming is related to global warming: An explainer,’’ with @andrewgarrett.bsky.social & David Stephenson, just published in Significance: academic.oup.com/jrssig/artic...
- Proud of our article, “Bayesian Projection of Extant Refugee & Asylum Seeker Populations,” with Herb Susmann, just published in Demography.
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- Did the Paris Climate Agreement work? communities.springernature.com/posts/did-th...
- I was interviewed on @obp.org ’s Think Out Loud by Dave Miller about our study on climate trends since the 2015 Paris Agreement: www.opb.org/article/2025.... The study is at www.nature.com/articles/s43...
- Our article “Mitigation efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and meet the Paris Agreement have been offset by economic growth” www.nature.com/articles/s43..., w Jitong Jiang & Skylar Shi just published. See also the @uwnews.uw.edu release www.washington.edu/news/2025/10...
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- The new Bayesian Social Sciences section of @isba-bayesian.bsky.social has just been created: bss-isba.github.io. The committee is myself as chair, @robinryder.bsky.social, chair elect from 2027, @nialfriel.bsky.social, program chair, @monjalexander.bsky.social, Treasurer, EJWagenmakers, Secretary.
- It will sponsor the 3rd Workshop on Bayesian Methods for the Social Sciences (BMSS-3) in Dublin, December 9-11, 2026.
- Our paper, “Optimal pandemic control strategies …” bmcglobalpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.... w @nickirons.bsky.social, just published.Takeaway: U.S. COVID-19 school closures were not cost-effective, but other measures were. medicalxpress.com/news/2025-09...
- Our article “Multiple imputation of hierarchical nonlinear time series data with an application to school enrollment data” w Daphne Liu just published in Annals of Applied Statistics: projecteuclid.org/journals/ann... (free preprint arxiv.org/abs/2401.01872)
- My website sites.stat.washington.edu/raftery/ just got its annual update, including new publications sites.stat.washington.edu/raftery/Rese...
- An explainer of how local warming is related to global warming, from the Royal Statistical Society Climate Change Task Force: rss.org.uk/policy-campa... . See also the detailed article at link.springer.com/article/10.1...
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