Imho the Trump administration latest attack on the Fed might backfire & prevent the MAGA executive from imposing its views at the helm of the central bank. Why? Because presidential nominations to the Fed board of governors have to be confirmed by the Senate. A 🧶 www.politico.com/news/2026/01...

Given that the GOP does not have a 60 votes filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, amending the Federal Reserve Act is out of reach. Therefore, the main avenue for the Trump administration to take control of the Fed lies in changing the composition of its leadership. 2/

Since Trump's return to the WH, the MAGA executive tries to do so in two ways: on the one hand, by firing a sitting governor (Lisa Cook), and on the other, by selecting a new chair aligned with Trump's monetary preferences to succeed Powell when his term as chair expires (15 May). 3/

Trump is about to announce his pick for Fed chair in the upcoming days, but he might not have the votes in the Senate to confirm his nomination, even though the Republican party have the majority in the Senate, with 53 seats to the Democrats' 47 seats. 4/ www.nytimes.com/2026/01/08/u...

The key factor here is the ideological & political heterogeneity of the GOP conference in the Senate. In other words, Republican senators who consider Fed independence as a red line might side with the Democrats and thus block Trump's nominations to the Fed board of governors. 5/

During Trump first term, even though the GOP held the majority in the Senate, several presidential nominations to the Fed board were tanked by Republicain Senators joining the Democratic caucus in opposing Trump Fed nominees (Goodfriend, Moore, Cain, Shelton). 6/ www.axios.com/2019/04/11/h...

The most important development of the last hours imho is the stance taken by Thom Tillis, a Republican Senator from North Carolina who sits in the Senate Banking Committee, to oppose any confirmation of Fed nominees (including for the chair position). 7/

Let's not forget here that, if no Fed chair is confirmed by the Senate when Powell's term as chair is up (15 May), Powell would continue to serve as Fed chair pro tempore (just like he did from January until May 2022). 9/ www.reuters.com/business/fed...

My take is that Trump first term shows how a handful of Republican Senators can block the executive branch attempts to remodel the Fed leadership. It could happen again if enough GOP Senators join Tillis in opposing confirmations until the administration ends its attacks on the Fed independence. 10/

The key players to watch are the moderate Senators who already crossed Trump on Fed nominations during his first term (Collins, Cramer, Ernst, Murkowski) as well as McConnell and even Rand Paul. 11/