Owen Winter
Political data journalist at The Economist
- Estimating pollster house effects for a Hungarian poll tracker. Quite revealing!
- The Hungarian Socialist Party might not run in 2026, for the first time since democratisation hvg.hu/itthon/20260... The party was in power for 12 of the first 20 years of post-communist Hungarian democracy
- MSZP-ification
- For UK comparison: Liverpool 40% Manchester 39% Nottingham 38% Brighton/Hove 37% Newcastle 37% Hull 35% Cambridge 34%
- Leaving aside the outliers, it does seem like the Greens levelled off in polling remarkably quickly after Polanski became leader. Jumped from 9% to 13% on average in a few weeks and have been stuck there(ish) since November. Makes Gorton and Denton very important for them
- e.g. just looking at the four pollsters who have published in each of the past 10 months (to keep composition constant)
- Australia's immigration rate, relative to its size, has been much higher than Britain's in recent years. The country is 32% foreign-born compared with 16% in Britain (one of the highest foreign-born populations in the western world). In some ways it's surprising the backlash didn't come sooner
- Of course in practice the relationship between immigration and hard-right parties is not that simple. In Europe they are negatively correlated! www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
- A possibility we wrote up here: www.economist.com/united-state...
