Ed Dolan
Economist, Senior Fellow at Niskanen Center. Political economy, social policy, environmental economics and more.
- I ran across a Redditt thread (not new) that suggests US oil companies aren't really much interested in access to Venezuela's heavy sour crude. (See image for a small sample of the thread) Has anyone seen more on this topic from sources that know the industry well? www.reddit.com/r/stocks/com...
- In a May '25 post, I cited Gallup data to show that American attitudes made it unrealistic to count on immigration to smooth population trends -- most people wanted to cut immigration or keep it the same. The latest data (next slide) show a sharp change www.milkenreview.org/articles/the... ...
- Now a new Gallup poll shows 64% want immigration to stay the same or increase, clearing the way for immigration to resume its role as a safety valve to smooth the transition to a low-fertility future (hat tip to @pkrugman.bsky.social ) paulkrugman.substack.com/p/immigrant-...?
- Now (
- " Technical workarounds that the agency used to deal with the collection issues may have biased the November figure downward, causing inflation to be understated." Let's wait to celebrate the end of inflation. www.wsj.com/economy/cons...
- Great article on the importance of grasslands and biodiversity, including the role of very small, lawn-sized plots with dozens of different plant species. www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
- Glad you liked it. Stopped mowing our "lawn," amazing how many plant and animal species now inhabit it.
- According to this account, Russian foreign policy is in disarray. open.substack.com/pub/ironcurt...
- As @pkrugman.bsky.social explains, the GOP is shooting itself in the foot with its cutoff of SNAP funding. Just a glance at this map shows that SNAP cutoffs hit red counties (well, darker green on this map) harder than blue. paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-hunger...
- Administration's immigration policy is disrupting farm labor market. This piece highlights the fact that no one seems to be thinking this through carefully. www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
- From @niskanencenter.bsky.social , a potentially powerful tool to ease the nationwide housing shortage. www.niskanencenter.org/home-field-a...
- Sometimes we have to say "no." This yes-no-yes approach makes it easier to do without unnecessary antagonism. www.talkmarkets.com/content/sayi...
- 1/2 Alarmed by the decrease in college enrollment? Most of the drop is in low-quality schools, says @prestoncooper93.bsky.social . Although humanities majors like me will be saddened by erosion of deeper learning in favor of career-boosting majors. prestoncooper93.substack.com/p/why-the-co...
- 2/2 To be a little nuanced, it is not that I'm saying students themselves are making a mistake to choose engineering over philosophy. It's rather that I'm saddened that employers don't realize that humanities majors have a lot to offer their firms. Not to mention what they have to offer as citizens.
- It's far too soon to know the full effects of the Administration's war on immigration. But one thing is already clear: It isn't creating jobs www.wsj.com/opinion/trum...
- Forget about meaningless year-on-year inflation. What's important is what is happening now. August CPI inflation was 4.5 percent compounded annual rate -- and rising fast.
- This California bill promotes more housing near transit hubs. Lists arguments for and against. Looks to me that the listed arguments against are things that make me like it better. www.slowboring.com/p/breaking-d...
- Those of us in the academic world write about "state capacity." Sometimes that term is just too wonky for those who live on planet Earth. Here is a case study that says exactly what "state capacity" means in that real world. (Hat-tip to @pahlkadot.bsky.social ) www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025...
- "President says he’ll decide later “whose fault it is” that Moscow and Kyiv have not moved closer to end the war." (If he hasn't figured that out yet, things don't look good.) wapo.st/3JvvRrN
- By some reports, Russia is "winning" the war in Ukraine. However, the cost to its economy is enormous. meduza.io/en/feature/2...
- @pkrugman.bsky.social quotes Arendt: "Totalitarianism in power invariably replaces all first-rate talents, regardless of their sympathies, with those crackpots and fools whose lack of intelligence and creativity is still the best guarantee of their loyalty." paulkrugman.substack.com/p/hackificat...
- Utilities often keep coal plants online even when they are not the cheapest source of power. Trump rules are making this problem worse. We could have a win-win (cut electricity prices AND cut emissions) if we could thwart this coal-friendly practice. www.volts.wtf/p/trumps-lat...
- What to expect in Alaska? “The ideal scenario for Putin would be to divorce the issue of relations with America from the issue of Ukraine, hoping that other political and economic matters would make Ukraine of little relevance to Trump.” www.wsj.com/world/russia...
- Looks much like Bukele's playbook. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
- I, for one, am all for cutting government waste. Why, then, is the government becoming a major perpetrator of waste? www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2025/...
- You can't fight the culture wars and make government more efficient at the same time. The see-saw battle over paper vs. plastic straws is a case in point, says @gabemenchaca.bsky.social of @niskanencenter.bsky.social www.eatingpolicy.com/p/grasping-a...
- Can someone explain why this is different from a cybercriminal who steals your data and then promises to give it back in return for a payment? www.washingtonpost.com/education/20...
- @meduza.io reports a bizarre trend among Russian elites toward beards, long hair for men, and traditional "patriotic" dress meduza.io/en/feature/2...
- 1/2 @pkrugman.bsky.social explains here why Trump's Japan trade deal, if fully implemented, will increase rather than decrease the US trade deficit. The key is the simple equation US Trade Deficit = Net Foreign Investment to US. ... open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
- 2/2 Here is a full explanation of the math behind Krugman's comment: www.niskanencenter.org/why-a-war-on...
- 1/2 To follow the rise of inflation, watch the annualized monthly rate, not the %change from a year ago.
- 2/2 Here is why www.milkenreview.org/articles/con...
- The only slim hope that Trump's Big Bad Bill will NOT trigger a major fiscal crisis is for GDP growth to increase. Already not very realistic, that hope is further dashed by a new study from the Atlanta Fed showing that mass deportation will send growth down, not up. www.wsj.com/opinion/dona...
- Trump's tariff policy is bad enough on economic grounds alone, but this is something else altogether. www.wsj.com/world/americ...
- "It's the housing, stupid!" Well, this new report from @niskanencenter.bsky.social does not go so far as to call anyone "stupid," but it does show that the high cost of housing is the leading reason for California's sky-high SPM poverty rate. www.niskanencenter.org/housing-poli...
- 1/2 Economists who study our healthcare system are frustrated by one thing above all: Not only are prices high, they are unknowable. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
- 2/2 What happened to Hayek's view of prices as a mechanism for transmitting information? Not in healthcare! www.econlib.org/library/Essa...
- Greg Ip, @wsj.com: "If governments could borrow as much as they wished and set interest rates by fiat, why don’t more do it? Because there is no free lunch. If interest rates are persistently too low, something bad will happen, usually inflation." www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
- BLS reports the unemployment rate decreased but the labor force fell by 130k and the employment population ratio was unchanged. On balance, a mixed picture on strength of job market. www.bls.gov/news.release...
- @gabemenchaca.bsky.social of @niskanencenter.bsky.social argues that the admin's attempts to improve performance and accountability in the civil service are simply "cloaking partisan control over the civil service in the language of “efficiency,” and “fitness." www.niskanencenter.org/you-cant-fir...
- Do work requirements for Medicaid work? No, says Robert Gordon, who has hands-on experience running such a program. donmoynihan.substack.com/p/how-medica...
- 1/3 Should we fight population decline with immigration and other tools? wapo.st/44dEoGA
- 2/3 Or just learn to live with fewer people, like the Japanese? wapo.st/3Ggi5rO
- 3/3 Or a little of both? Here's my take: www.milkenreview.org/articles/the...
- Who is going to bring in the harvest? And MAGA's effects on rural America don't stop there. paulkrugman.substack.com/p/maga-will-...
