Ballot Box Scotland
Scottish elections and polling data. Not my polls. OG 'Britain Elects but Scottish'. PR fan account. Trans rights are human rights.
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- You can catch me on this week's @thecourier.co.uk / @pressandjournal.co.uk Stooshie podcast with @justinbowie1997.bsky.social, talking about the prospects for each party in May, with a good bit more detail and nuance possible across a solid 20 minutes of chat!
- Here's just a little snippet from the podcast, talking about Labour's chances - and, apropos of earlier potshots from me at a sitting MSP, a reminder that Edinburgh Central is the second most winnable seat for Labour out of those they don't already hold.
- Right putting this on blast: what we have here is a sitting MSP and cabinet minister deliberately misrepresenting the situation in their seat by pretending it hasn't a substantial boundary changes. One of many reasons not to use FPTP (and, indeed, STV) is the incentive for this bad behaviour.
- I've written extensively on the boundary changes, which in Edinburgh Central's case move the seat southwards onto territory covered by 2021's Edinburgh Southern, a Labour seat. My estimate is the new EdC is second most marginal SNP vs Labour seat nationwide. ballotbox.scot/sp26-edinbur...
- To be clear if any MSP was doing this, regardless of seat, I would call it out if made aware of it. In reality I reckon this is probably the juciest seat to misrepresent: no other seat has the combination of such a big shift in second place party, or prospect for inter-Independence camp competition.
- By-Election Result: Bearsden South An expected easy Lib Dem win accompanies a Conservative collapse that is a terrible omen for the latter's prospects in May.
- Bearsden South (East Dunbartonshire) by-election run to a Lib Dem vs SNP head-to-head (vs 2022): Lib Dem: 2652 (57.9%, +5.9) SNP: 1089 (23.8%, -8.0) Didn't Transfer: 840 (18.3%, +2.1)
- Bearsden South (East Dunbartonshire) by-election first preferences: Lib Dem: 1744 (38.1%, +14.9) SNP: 789 (17.2%, -6.2) Reform UK: 709 (15.5%, new) Labour: 650 (14.2%, -1.9) Green: 371 (8.1%, +0.9) Conservative: 283 (6.2%, -17) Family: 35 (0.8%, new) Lib Dem elected stage 5.
- Bearsden South (East Dunbartonshire) transfers, votes at final stage (no head-to-head comparison with 2022 at this point, need to wait for data with Reform eliminated): Lib Dem: 2333 (50.9%) SNP: 1057 (23.1%) Reform UK: 836 (18.2%) Didn't Transfer: 355 (7.7%)
- Bearsden South (East Dunbartonshire) by-election results by polling district, strongest area by party: Lib Dem: Bearsden Cross SNP, Reform: Colquhoun Park Labour, Conservative: Kessington Green: Westerton Disappointingly, council have thus far failed to publish data needed for second pref analysis
- Bearsden South (East Dunbartonshire) by-election, most popular second preference by party: Lib Dem <-> Labour SNP <-> Green Reform -> Conservative Conservative -> Lib Dem Family -> Reform/Green (lol)
- Partly to get a new post to pin, a reminder that you can keep tabs on all Ballot Box Scotland analysis and coverage ahead of the Holyrood election here: ballotbox.scot/scottish-par... At this stage, a reminder that the most useful bit may be the Region Previews, which explain the boundary changes!
- Poll Analysis: YouGov 8th - 14th of January 2026 Holyrood Seats Projection: SNP ~ 64 Reform UK ~ 21 Labour ~ 16 Green ~ 11 Conservative ~ 9 Lib Dem ~ 8 Independence: No ~ 53% Yes ~ 47%
- I think there are good democratic reasons not to have by-elections under STV but also it would spare me so much bother trying to get data that is should be published as a matter of course, and in many cases is
- New Scottish Parliament poll, YouGov 8-14 Jan (vs 20-25 Jun 24!; SCOOPs excluded): List: SNP ~ 29% (nc) RUK ~ 20% (+13) Lab ~ 15% (-16) Grn ~ 12% (+3) Con ~ 11% (-2) LD ~ 9% (nc) Alba ~ 1% (nc) Constituency: SNP ~ 34% (+1) RUK ~ 20% (+20) Lab ~ 15% (-22) Con ~ 10% (-3) LD ~ 10% (+1) Grn ~ 9% (+5)
- YouGov 8-14 Jan seat projection (vs last poll / vs 2021 on new boundaries); AMS Ideal seats: SNP ~ 64 (+26 / +1); 44 RUK ~ 21 (+15 / +21); 25 Lab ~ 16 (-36 / -5); 19 Grn ~ 11 (+1 / +1); 14 Con ~ 9 (-5 / -22); 14 LD ~ 8 (-1 / +4); 11 (Projection caveats: ballotbox.scot/projections)
- New Scottish Independence poll, YouGov 8-14 Jan (changes vs 5-6 Nov): No ~ 46% (+2) Yes ~ 41% (-1) Don't Know ~ 12% (-2) Excluding Don't Knows (/ vs 2014): No ~ 53% (2 / +2) Yes ~ 47% (-2 / +2)
- Oh, incidentally, the upshot of this by-election is that Scotland is currently at Vacancy Zero amongst elected positions. All 1226 councillors, all 129 MSP and all 57 MP spots are occupied. Given the number of councillors it's a real rarity to not have at least one pending by-election!
