Institute for the Study of War
ISW is a policy research organization focused on U.S. national security. Email: press@understandingwar.org. For more: linktr.ee/understandingwar
- NEW: Iran & the US plan to hold talks in Oman on Feb 6, despite the brief cancellation of the meeting on Feb 4. The US seeks to discuss Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missiles, & support for its proxy network. (1/3) Feb 4, 2026 Iran Update: isw.pub/IranUpdate02... Additional Key Takeaways ⬇️
- 2/ A Middle East-focused outlet reported that some Iranian regime policymakers believe that the only credible deterrent to US military action is the threat of prolonged, costly war. Prior Iranian strikes on US regional assets didn't deter US military action, like strikes on al Udeid Airbase in 2025.
- 3/ A senior People’s Protection Units commander who reportedly opposed previous efforts to integrate the Syrian Democratic Forces into the Syrian state publicly endorsed the SDF’s integration under the Jan 30 agreement. Moderates within the SDF may be convincing hardliners to support the agreement.
- NEW: RU resumed its combined missile & drone strike campaign against UA energy infrastructure on the night of February 2-3, after the moratorium on energy infrastructure strikes. Read the Feb 3, 2026 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment: isw.pub/UkrWar020326 More Key Takeaways ⬇️ (1/7)
- 2/ RU's overnight strike package contained a high number of ballistic missiles, consistent w/ efforts to stockpile missiles to damage civilian infrastructure. The Feb 2-3 strike shows RU never intended to use the energy strikes moratorium to de-escalate the war or seriously advance negotiations.
- NEW: Iran conducted 2 probing ops against the US Navy in the Gulf likely designed to test US Navy defensive reactions & demonstrate Iran’s threat. The incidents may be the start of an Iranian maritime escalation that seeks to deter a US strike. (1/5) Feb 3, 2026 Iran Update: isw.pub/IranUpdate02...
