Two assumptions: (1) a compromised or politically leveraged DNI, and (2) an executive branch actively adversarial to the democratic process. All three models converged independently on two findings:

First, the legal theory fails in court. Post-Loper Bright, courts exercise independent judgment on agency interpretations. IEEPA "property interest" theory applied to voting machines is novel, untested, and almost certainly gets enjoined. All you'd get is lawsuits. Vigorous, enthusiastic lawsuits.

Second - and this is what matters - all three models operating under ICD 203-1 analytical tradecraft guidelines assess high probability it gets attempted anyway.

The objective isn't winning the legal argument. It's disruption. Seize materials under national security classification, run out certification deadlines, and let the courts sort it out after the damage is done. Courts ruling against it in Jan doesn't help if the count needed to be certified in Dec.