Emilie Vanderhulst
🇪🇺 covering ECB monetary policy + EMU + EcoFin + EU budget EUlaw and, sometimes, CFSP-CSDP / daily EU brief BXFM radio | OV
- #ECB President Lagarde at today monetary policy press conf: "our monetary policy is in good shape, because it is agile"
- 1/2 #ECB President Lagarde: while we are tied to monetary purpose of what we do in terms of liquidity, and we have to constantly assess the proportionnality of what we do, it is a fact that we are looking at our liquidity framework, and that our repo lines, to be distinguished from the swap lines
- 2/2 "the repo lines are in progress, in terms in reframing them, opening up the access and making them more attractive to other national central banks outside the euro area and outside EUROPE. So this is in the works and I hope I would be able to announce a bit more in a few days" #monetarypolicy
- The last few weeks, since the summer, USD has fluctuated between a range (...)", ECB President Lagarde stresses "As the result of that observations, we concluded that the impact of exchange rate appreciation since last year, is incorporated in our baseline" #ECB #monetarypolicymeeting
- 1/2 #monetarypolicy l #ECB Governing Council has decided to keep the 3 #ECB key rates on hold, citing the robustness of the labour market and private sector balance sheets + the first positive effects of public spendings in defence and infrastructure on growth
- 2/2 + the effects of the latest rate cuts Above all, @ecb.europa.eu still sees inflation stabilising at its 2% target in medium-term On the other hands, ECB stresses that the outlook is marked by uncertainty, especially considering trade policy and geopolitical tensions
- 1/2 It's #ECB #monetarypolicy day! With euroarea medium-term inflation +/- at target, @ecb.europa.eu Governing Council is expected to keep its key interest rates on hold (DFR at 2.00%, MRO at 2.15% and MLF at 2.40% since the mini cut of June 2025), preserving ECB flexibility capacities,
- 2/n in the wait-and-watch approach regarding potential and emerging risks. According to yesterday Eurostat flash estimate • January euro area headline inflation is still easing, slightly under target (1,7% against 2% in Dec) • core inflation are +/- at target (2.2%)
- • services inflation slightly easing but still at an elevated level (3.2% against 3.4% in Dec) • energy rate drop for Jan, reflecting base effects (-4.1% against -1.9%)
- Let’s add the EUR appreciation against USD, which helps easing imported inflation and energy prices but can weight on Member States exports A phenomenon that probably not in such a magnitude rn to support rate cuts in February.
- 1/2 HICP euroarea annual inflation rate is down to 1.7% in January, [below #ECB target!], according to a Eurostat estimate. Fuelled by base effects in energy. Note also the slight decline in services. Core inflation (excluding energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) is down estimated at 2.2% in Jan 26
- 2/3 Let's stress another phenomenon: the €uro appreciation against U$ dollar (EUR/USD exchange rate rose to 1.1819 today). Yet, many ECB watchers see #ECB Governing Council keeping rates on hold tomorrow. But what about cuts in March?
- 3/3 NB for 🇧🇪: for Belgium, an estimated drop in global inflation for January (Belgian annual inflation rate expected to be 1.4% in January 2026, down from 2.2% in December 2025) 📄 ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/...
