Fraser of Allander Institute
The Fraser of Allander Institute at the University of Strathclyde is an independent economic research unit providing expert analysis and insight on the Scottish economy. fraserofallander.org
- The Scottish Health Equity Research Unit (SHERU) has published new analysis on poverty in Scotland. How do poverty rates compare with the rest of the UK, how have they changed over time, and what has driven those changes?
- ⚽ New report: The Economic Contribution of Scottish Professional Football ⚽ We are incredibly excited to publish our latest piece of economic analysis looking at the impact of Scottish professional football. Read the full report here:
- The Scottish Government has published more information on how it plans to reallocate the savings from the abolition of the two-child limit. Do the numbers add up?
- More on the budget - if you haven't had enough!
- Hear more about the details of the Scottish budget from FAI Director Mairi Spowage and Deputy Director João Sousa in our latest podcast 🎧
- We have now updated our analysis, including: - Why the health settlement looks too tight, especially given pay deals; - Initial look at capital cuts; - Why the income tax changes are expensive and change little; - More details on child poverty plans. fraserofallander.org/a-budget-whe...
- The devil was in the detail and in what the Finance Secretary didn't say. Weaker tax revenues drove most of the £480m cut in day-to-day spending relative to June plans, even after raiding one-off pots; capital was cut by £850m. Our initial analysis: buff.ly/99xjj1g
- The devil was in the detail and in what the Finance Secretary didn't say. Weaker tax revenues drove most of the £480m cut in day-to-day spending relative to June plans, even after raiding one-off pots; capital was cut by £850m. Our initial analysis: buff.ly/99xjj1g
- Our Director Mairi Spowage is on BBC Scotland now talking all things Budget and responding live:
- 1/ ICYMI: Scotland’s Budget Report 2026-27 is live today! Here's the key takeaways from our report that you should know about the upcoming Scottish budget on Tuesday 13th Jan... 🧵 buff.ly/52A9kpV
- 2/ The UK Budget increased funding by £300m , and further improvements to tax and social sec forecasts boost funding by an additional £450m. On current plans, the Scottish Government will use this one-off boost to offset an underlying resource deficit of £0.5bn in 2026-27
- 3/ This will continue a years-long pattern of using exceptional items and non-recurring revenues to finance day-to-day spending. But this approach cannot be relied on indefinitely.
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View full thread11/ Want to know more? 📖 Read the full report here: buff.ly/VuHXFqs
- 📢 NEW: Scotland’s Budget Report for 2026-27 📢 Today, we publish our report on the upcoming Scottish Budget. One-off boosts mask an underlying resource deficit, but prioritisation will be required to rewrite unaffordable investment plans with a £1bn+ gap. Read more here:
- How do we make the aims of the Public Service Reform Strategy in relation to preventative budgeting a reality and what pitfalls need to be avoided? Some of our thoughts here: fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
- Reposted by Fraser of Allander Institute1/ This latest piece I've worked on is a reassessment of the implications of some of the OBR's long-term assumptions on indexation and what it means for fiscal sustainability. Key point: fiscal drag is a feature, not a bug, and taxes are already going up even when thresholds are no longer frozen
- How far away is the UK from fiscal sustainability? Read below to find out how fiscal drag and health spending affect these projections, and why the action needed to tackle the issue is smaller than might appear: fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
- How far away is the UK from fiscal sustainability? Read below to find out how fiscal drag and health spending affect these projections, and why the action needed to tackle the issue is smaller than might appear: fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
- When ministers say the Scottish Budget is balanced, is it a meaningful statement? Have they been plugging gaps with borrowing and non-recurring funding, including in the ABR? Welcome to our Budget Report preview series - look out for more in January! fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
- Glasgow City Council is proposing new neighbourhood parking controls with pay & display fees and emissions-based permits. 🎙️In our latest podcast, Hannah, Allison, & Josh break down: ▶️ What these changes mean for residents ▶️How this ties to air quality & climate goals. 👂Listen now:
- Reposted by Fraser of Allander Institute1/📄 New working paper www.strath.ac.uk/media/1newwe... On 4 Nov, the Chancellor heavily hinted Labour might break its manifesto and raise income tax. Nine days later: plan dropped, blamed on "better than expected OBR forecasts." Those forecasts were delivered 5 days BEFORE her speech. Thread 👇
- The chaos of the UK Budget showed a broken process. But how can it be fixed? In this blog, our deputy director @joaosousa.bsky.social proposes a way forward: the OBR would first publish its baseline forecast, with a three-week window for Treasury policymaking. Read more below: buff.ly/ErNtglY
- The chaos of the UK Budget showed a broken process. But how can it be fixed? In this blog, our deputy director @joaosousa.bsky.social proposes a way forward: the OBR would first publish its baseline forecast, with a three-week window for Treasury policymaking. Read more below: buff.ly/ErNtglY
- Today we are launching the Scottish Public Spending Dashboard, a collaboration between the FAI and JRF. This is a new tool allowing detailed government spending figures to be accessed and analysed by a broader set of people. Learn more below:
- What’s happening to economic activity, employment and earnings in Scotland’s hospitality sector? Find out in our latest Hospitality Statistics Briefing for 2025 👉
- Support for people with learning disabilities should reflect daily experiences, communication & wellbeing. Our collaboration with SCLD, PAMIS & DHI explores how person-owned data stores can help do this, while also enhancing the evidence base. Read more: buff.ly/acN7Umg
- Listen to our podcast reacting to yesterday's Budget, where we talk about the two-child limit abolition, tax rises and the risks in the course chosen by the Chancellor, and the chaos of the process: buff.ly/Vy8nodi We also have a round-up of some measures you may have missed: buff.ly/ziriaXW
- We have now updated our blog with all the analysis we'll include tonight. Read below: buff.ly/0T3M3SD Stay tuned tomorrow as we round up the news on the budget in an edition of our podcast, and we'll add some more analysis in the afternoon as well
- Our view - the £22bn headroom is a fiscal fiction. Allowing for fuel duty freezes and discounting non-credible spending cuts, it's more like £15bn - so not much higher than before, and not enough for normal forecast uncertainty
- So much briefing inevitably leads to a Budget that did not have many surprises. But what's the real story behind the spin? Read our initial reaction, and keep checking back over the course of the afternoon and evening for further analysis: fraserofallander.org/budget-2025-...
- Some additional analysis on the two-child limit being abolished and what it means for Scotland - including why only £120m of the £155m set aside is likely to be available for other spending by the Scottish Government fraserofallander.org/budget-2025-...
- So much briefing inevitably leads to a Budget that did not have many surprises. But what's the real story behind the spin? Read our initial reaction, and keep checking back over the course of the afternoon and evening for further analysis: fraserofallander.org/budget-2025-...
- The UK Government are publishing a plan for the North Sea alongside the Budget today, and perhaps changes to the tax regime - ICYMI, we discuss the current state of the energy sector in this podcast
- ICYMI - what could be on the menu in the budget this afternoon? Essential pre-budget reading as we all wonder if the Irn Bru recipe will change again...
- Fraser of Allander Institute is supporting this event on the 5th November. Please sign up if you are interested and haven't arleady!
- A few days out from the UK Budget, a chance to reflect on the process. This is NOT normal. But we can and should improve the forecast process if we want increased public trust and transparency. Read our analysis below: buff.ly/jUliDtB
- Essential pre-budget reading and listening - is the energy transition at a critical point? buff.ly/Y4EqUY0 See also the accompanying podcast with Professor Paul De Leeuw and Hayley Strachan from Deloitte. buff.ly/NEXV43x
- As the Chancellor reaches for the smorgasbord option on taxes, why is she in such a pickle? And is her planned headroom enough to avoid coming back next year for more? Read our latest Budget preview below: fraserofallander.org/uk-budget-pr...
- This is clever briefing but not actually how OBR forecasts work. The last pre-measures forecast, where this could have been true - was 31 Oct, 5 days before Chancellor's speech. Market determinants were also taken a month ago. This suggest pulling back was the plan all along.
- The UK government ditched plans to raise income tax rates after an improved fiscal forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility, according to people familiar with the matter. Follow our live blog for the latest: on.ft.com/4pc7LC1
- See the OBR's timetable: obr.uk/docs/dlm_upl...
- If the two-child limit to Universal Credit is abolished, the Scottish Government will save £155 million next year. In our second budget preview, we discuss how these savings could be spent on further measures to tackle child poverty: fraserofallander.org/budget-previ...
- How effective are Scotland’s employment programmes for people with learning disabilities? Our latest blog looks at what available data tells us across Scotland. Read more 👇 🔗 buff.ly/9odHIVa
- Why a 2p increase in UK income tax will cut the Scottish Budget by £1 billion: read our first budget preview and find out more:
- Our latest blog looks at how Scotland is progressing with annual health checks for people with learning disabilities — covering the latest data, NHS Board variation, funding, and upcoming review and research. Read more here: fraserofallander.org/tracking-pro...
- Last chance to secure a free place at our upcoming workshop in collaboration with SCLD and Mindroom! If you're an employer or in the HR/People field, come and learn all about hiring neurodivergent people and people with learning disabilities. Registration closes Monday 4pm. buff.ly/9DcEMjS
- In this week's update: the IMF has urged the UK to stick to two forecasts a year. But is that compatible with the incentives of Chancellors? Or if we want policy stability, do we have to make do with just one forecast? Read more below: buff.ly/XFZvodu
- Relations with the Scottish Government, readiness for Net Zero, current business activity, economic outlook for the year ahead, and more in our latest Scottish Business Monitor - published today.
- Updated economic forecasts, a preview of tomorrow's Scottish Business Monitor publication and more in our latest Commentary - published today.
- As we get deeper into Autumn, the named storms are starting to turn up, Glasgow’s characteristic horizontal rain is drenching us again and the fiscal horizon isn’t free from a smattering of dark clouds either.... and yes we do keep this metaphor going through the blog! buff.ly/SiIJ1RK
