Christopher Leisinger
policy analyst @pik-potsdam.bsky.social directors team
climate policy, the EU & economics.
- Reposted by Christopher LeisingerForget derisking. 2025 is about the the quiet MAGA-fication of the European mainstream, one green regulation rollback and green subsidy cut at a time. geoeconomic.substack.com/p/the-wartbu...
- Initial thoughts on the 2040 target: The Council wants to count 5% Article 6 credits towards 2040. Timing/volume are contested, but the key question is *where* credits fit - ETS, agriculture/LULUCF, or a safety valve are on the table. Defining clear rules for credit use will be the real challenge /1
- Revisions are a new feature of EU climate policy but keep markets on standby. Delaying ETS2 won't remove its impact. Adjusting ETS1 to allow emissions beyond 2039 follows the same logic. Residual emissions still need a fix: an ETS price collar and CDRs could balance flexibility and credibility /2
- Article 6 credits push the EU towards global engagement. Partner selection will be key. Unconditional cooperation may no longer suit the times. Embedding carbon market diplomacy within a strategic, interest-based approach could help the EU leverage its diplomatic weight and manage external relations
- Nach Angriffen auf das #ETS mehren sich endlich verteidigende Stimmen: Das ETS trägt keine Schuld an strukturellen Industrieproblemen. Europa ist beim Klimaschutz kein Geisterfahrer. Was wir brauchen: pragmatischen Wettbewerbsschutz und Negativemissionen im ETS. Sonst droht reine Symptombekämpfung.
- Very stoked for this year's #AriadneEU in Brussels! Plenty on the menu -- from geeky #ETS deep dives to broader post-2030 climate #policy debates. Program and registration link below 👇
- Reposted by Christopher Leisinger[Not loaded yet]
- It's worth reading Nils' points also in the context of #ETS2. At its core, ETS2 shifts relative prices in favor of EVs. Hence, ot should be seen as core element of a broader industrial policy toolkit, where eco-bonuses and subsidies act as helpful complements to steer the transition.
- The car crisis tops today’s EU summit but leaders keep staring at the wrong problem The issue isn’t the 2035 engine ban - it’s demand falling off a cliff today With @sandertordoir.bsky.social and @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social, we show why flipping regs won’t help - and what the EU can do instead.
- Reposted by Christopher Leisinger[Not loaded yet]
- Finally, some clarity on ETS2 safeguards: early auctions for price discovery, frontloading for acceptability, and a more responsive MSR to smooth prices. Curious whether this will satisfy Member States and where discussions will go once details are clear. climate.ec.europa.eu/news-other-r...
- „Failure is not inevitable. It is a choice.“ — PIK Director Rockström at the UN Climate Summit
- Reposted by Christopher Leisinger[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Christopher Leisinger[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Christopher Leisinger1/ New report from @bentleyallan.bsky.social's Net Zero Policy Lab: As the US withdraws from green tech industries and pressures allies to follow suit, China is stepping in to power the developing world's energy transition. The scale is staggering. www.netzeropolicylab.com/china-green-...
- Reposted by Christopher Leisinger[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Christopher Leisinger[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Christopher Leisinger[Not loaded yet]
- Vor dem Autogipfel fordern manche wieder das Ende der Flottengrenzwerte: Söder teilt aus, auch die Grünen wanken. Laut @transportenvironment.org droht aber nur Mercedes die Grenzwerte zu reißen. Den anderen hilft va. die neue 2025-27 Flexibilität. www.transportenvironment.org/uploads/file...
- Reposted by Christopher LeisingerWir können es uns nicht leisten, *keinen* Klimaschutz umzusetzen, sagt Keywan Riahi (@iiasa.ac.at). "Denn die jetzige Misere in Europa ist ja entstanden, weil wir von fossilen Energieträgern abhängig sind und uns damit verletzlich gemacht haben." #WissenSchafftKlimaschutz
- Strong support for the inclusion of permanent carbon removals in the EU ETS, as per the European Commission's public consultation on the 2040 climate target. More public views on MSR, CBAM, linking, etc. here: ec.europa.eu/info/law/bet...
- Reposted by Christopher LeisingerIf every single ton of this 1,460 GtCO2 would be used to remove CO2 from the atmosphere, we could reverse 0.7°C of global warming. And this estimate is a clear ceiling, because... /4
- „The message in this report is that the EU must not abandon its values and green ambition, but it must express them in ways that are realistic and compelling (…). It means embracing a Green Realpolitik.“ @thijsvandegraaf.bsky.social big-europe.eu/publications...
- Reposted by Christopher Leisinger1/ Trump's recent trade agreements with allies are revealing significant interpretation gaps. From Japan to South Korea to the EU, these deals lack formal documentation, creating ongoing disputes over fundamental terms.
- Reposted by Christopher Leisinger[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Christopher LeisingerSome holiday thoughts on the EU-US "deal" ... [something to do while the baby has a nap] mostfavourednation.substack.com/p/some-thoug...
- Not exactly a good day (but perhaps a timely one) to revisit this recent Bruegel analysis on the economic consequences of Trump tariffs on the EU, by @niclaspoitiers.bsky.social and colleagues. www.bruegel.org/analysis/eco...
- Einblicke in Bürger*innenperspektiven zur Klimapolitik vom #Ariadne Gipfel: CO2-Preis und Förderprogramme werden befürwortet - wenn sie sozial gerecht ausgestaltet sind. Wichtig auch: Deliberationsformate verschieben die Debatte. Nicht ob, sondern *wie* wir Klimaschutz umsetzen, rückt ins Zentrum.
- Reposted by Christopher Leisinger[Not loaded yet]
- EU and China released a joint statement on climate, pledging to deliver 2035 NDCs ahead of COP30. Well, words on paper… but definitely ramping up reputational pressure on EU Member States to settle on new climate targets after summer. www.consilium.europa.eu/de/press/pre...
- Reposted by Christopher Leisinger🔥 ⚖️ 🌐HAPPENING NOW: Historic #ClimateJustice Ruling being delivered by the 🇺🇳 🧑⚖️ International Court of Justice. 🚨This ruling could signal a new dawn for climate law & accountability 📝 🧵 Live thread below with context, summary & analysis 👇 #ClimateJusticeAO #AOLetsGo
- Reposted by Christopher LeisingerWe’re delighted to announce the appointment of Nigel Topping CMG the new Chair of the Committee from 23 July. Read the announcement here ⬇️ www.theccc.org.uk/2025/07/22/n...
- National minimum prices deserve more attention in this context - esp. in DE, the major ETS2 emitter with a rel. high domestic price already in place. A DE top-up would be a fair contribution to emission cuts. More importantly, it could lower ETS2 prices and support the system's political viability.
- Merz warns that corporate car CO2 standards threaten core industrial competences. Quite unfortunate to see the Chancellor reinforces the tale that climate policy leads to deindustrialization - a mindset that itself risks turning Europe into an industrial museum rather than net-zero technology hub.
- Reposted by Christopher LeisingerWorking paper update 👇
- Our updated working paper with @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social and @chflachsland.bsky.social - Introducing and applying the Climate Institutions Analysis Framework (CIAF) - is now available ⬇️ all feedback welcome!
- Sharp synthesis of the 2024 landmark reports by Letta and Draghi and their implications for the EU's economic agenda. Now, the 2028-34 MFF negotiations will test whether the EU truly backs its new competitiveness agenda - with sufficient financial commitment and, crucially, political legitimacy.
- 📘🇪🇺 Much more than a report In our new @jcms-eu.bsky.social piece, Lucia Quaglia and I argue that the Draghi and Letta reports go beyond competitiveness - they mark a shift in the EU’s political identity. But this entails huge challenges! Open access here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
- Reposted by Christopher LeisingerMuch more sweeping is the change that the COM has just proposed a massive shift in the shares in the budget away from regional and agricultural policy towards common spending on things like decarbonisation or innovation. This is an important step to match the EU budget and proclaimed EU priorities.
- Reposted by Christopher LeisingerThe Socialists in the EP have leveraged a no-confidence vote put up by the far right to effectively gut a major part of the reform of the EU budget. Stunning development that further imperils the prospect for a major MFF reform. I had hopes that this time would be different. But I was naive. Thread:
- 2/ If, as the EC proposes, safeguards are tight and int'l credits are costly, the domestic net target may effectively near 90%. Some MS push for higher limits on int'l credits. But with a financing debate approaching, I'd argue that large-scale use A6 credits will be off the table soon.
- 3/ Second, how will costs and potential price benefits be distributed - across sectors/firms, Member States, EU? If, as the Commission envisions, international credits are not directly integrated into the ETS, then under the current architecture, agriculture and LULUCF are the likely recipients.
- 4/ This could mean that two of the slowest-moving sectors end up being fed with "smelly" credits - potentially creating a political constellation where policymakers face pressure to drive real transformation where progress has been sluggish. Let's see where things go over the next 18 months.
- 3% int’l credits in the EU’s 2040 climate target would add ~140 MtCO2 (+30% than 90% domestic-only). But implementation details matter: If phased in from 2036-40 and phased out by 2050, int’l credits could even lead to an extra year of EU emissions. www.oeko.de/fileadmin/oe...
- 🧵 Sündenbock Klimapolitik? Klimaschutz wird zuletzt oft für Wettbewerbsverluste, Deindustrialisierung & Wohlstandseinbußen verantwortlich gemacht. In @politischemeinung.bsky.social argumentieren wir: Das ist irreführend. Aus mindestens 3 Gründen führt an einem ehrgeizigen Klimakurs kein Weg vorbei.
- Klimaschutz ist Wohlstandssicherung. Die wirtschaftlichen Schäden des Klimawandels sind weit höher als bislang angenommen. Sie dürften die Kosten wirksamer Klimapolitik um ein Vielfaches übertreffen. Die sozialen Kosten von CO2 könnten sogar über 1.000€ liegen - weit über heutigen CO2-Preisen.
- Klimaschutz ist Sicherheitspolitik. Fossile Exporte füllen Russlands Kriegskasse. Jeder Euro für die Klimawende stärkt Europas Energiesouveränität - und entlastet direkt die Verteidigungshaushalte. Insbesondere das ETS2 ist mehr als Klimapolitik: Es ist Teil einer europäischen Sicherheitsstrategie.
-
View full threadHier der Link zu unserem Beitrag: www.kas.de/de/web/die-p... Ottmar #Edenhofer @ckilimann.bsky.social @pik-potsdam.bsky.social
- Reposted by Christopher Leisinger[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Christopher Leisinger[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Christopher Leisinger[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Christopher Leisinger❗ This is BIG news for China #Carbon market 🌟 China released NEW high-level policy (Opinions) to strengthen the national Carbon market - Expand ETS to All sectors and Aviation by 2027 - Absolute Cap for ETS by 2030, starting in 2027 for sectors with steady emissions
- Reposted by Christopher LeisingerHeadlines on international media report on 3 (or 2) years left before we exhaust the 1.5C carbon budget. How did this year’s IGCC estimate of the remaining carbon budget end up with a 74% reduction compared to the latest @IPCC_CH report? A short deeper dive. /1
- The remaining 1.5C carbon budget could be just 130 GtCO2. At 2024 emissions, it will be gone in ca. 3 years. Carbon removals are no longer optional. "Clean up the mess!" isn't just good advice - it's the new imperative of climate policy.
- Reposted by Christopher Leisinger[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Christopher Leisinger[Not loaded yet]
- Diese Forderung des VDA verheißt nichts Gutes für das Preisniveau im ETS2. Immerhin sind die Flottengrenzwerte wohl der wichtigste „Backstop“ gegen sozial unverträgliche CO2-Preise im Verkehr.
- Der VDA drängt auf ein faktisches Aus für das Verbrenner-Verbot. Das geht aus dem Entwurf für ein neues Positionspapier hervor, der @table.media vorliegt. Deutliche Kritik an den Plänen kommt von @woelken.eu und @agoraverkehr.bsky.social:
- Finding a landing zone for 2040 is incredibly tough for Hoekstra, squeezed between climate advisers rejecting int'l credits and EU capitals demanding them. Taking int'l credits off the table is nearly impossible - key now is to find a policy that balances integrity concerns with political pressure.
- EU capitals are calling for flexibility to meet climate goals. Today, the ESABCC reaffirms its guidance as a benchmark for the 2040 debate. The target must be >90% net & domestic to ensure credibility. Int'l credits aren't a shortcut - flexibility should come from scaling CDR with solid governance.
- In its new advice, the @esabcc.bsky.social reaffirms its recommendation for EU Policy: 90–95% net domestic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2040 is both feasible and keeps the EU on a credible path to climate neutrality. Read the advice here: climate-advisory-board.europa.eu/news/staying...
- Reposted by Christopher LeisingerIn its new advice, the @esabcc.bsky.social reaffirms its recommendation for EU Policy: 90–95% net domestic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2040 is both feasible and keeps the EU on a credible path to climate neutrality. Read the advice here: climate-advisory-board.europa.eu/news/staying...
- Reposted by Christopher Leisinger🇵🇱⚖️🗳️ The rule of law repair process in Poland just got incredibly more difficult. I expect President Nawrocki to be even less cooperative than Duda, as Nawrocki will work hard for a PiS parliamentary election victory. Tough times ahead. 1/
- Reposted by Christopher Leisinger[Not loaded yet]
- Great take on the 2030 NECPs! I'd add, (perhaps too) optimistically: nearing the ESR target may lower ETS2 prices - a dynamic some call the "make-or-break moment" for EU climate policy. More constructively: a platform for ESR trade between MS could strengthen enforcement and reduce costs.
- Reposted by Christopher Leisinger[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Christopher Leisinger[Not loaded yet]
- Thanks, Linda, for joining our event yesterday! We now have more clarity on how to unlock the benefits of flexibility mechanisms - particularly CDR and int'l credits - while keeping a close eye on the risks. Getting the sequencing right is key @ariadneprojekt.bsky.social @pik-potsdam.bsky.social
- Reposted by Christopher Leisinger[Not loaded yet]
- Nach Expertenrat ist das Klimaziel 2030 in Reichweite - das sind durchaus gute Nachrichten. Doch der wahre „Break it or Make it“-Moment steht erst 2027 bevor: Dann startet das neue ETS2. Und mit ihm die entscheidende Bewährungsprobe für die Glaubwürdigkeit der Klimapolitik. Worum geht es nun?
- 📢Veröffentlichung des Prüfberichts des @expertenratklima.bsky.social. Dabei stellen wir *keine* Überschreitung des #Emissionsbudgets 2021-2030 fest. Allerdings stellen wir eine Reihe von Zielverfehlungen fest, die im #Klimaschutzprogramm adressiert werden sollten expertenrat-klima.de 1/n
- Am ETS2 wird sich entscheiden, ob die Erfüllungslücke 2030 wächst. Und wie ernst es Deutschland (und die EU) mit dem Klimaschutz meint. Preisunsicherheit und Marktvolatilität werden zur Nagelprobe - gegen beides muss man sich frühzeitig absichern, für hohe Preise und soziale Härten vorsorgen.
- Preise >300€ sind denkbar. Aber bis 2030 auch solche unter 100€. Wir fokussieren gerne den Worst Case. Was es jetzt wirklich braucht: Preisunsicherheit mindern durch gute Prognosen. Dynamischer Preiskorridor und flankierende Maßnahmen gegen Volatilität. Größeren Klima-Sozialfonds für die Fairness.
- Vielen Dank an @brigitteknopf.bsky.social und Team, insbes. im Hintergrund, für die Arbeit und den neuen Prüfbericht des @expertenratklima.bsky.social expertenrat-klima.de
- Reposted by Christopher Leisinger📢Veröffentlichung des Prüfberichts des @expertenratklima.bsky.social. Dabei stellen wir *keine* Überschreitung des #Emissionsbudgets 2021-2030 fest. Allerdings stellen wir eine Reihe von Zielverfehlungen fest, die im #Klimaschutzprogramm adressiert werden sollten expertenrat-klima.de 1/n
- In 2025, every 4th new car could be an EV, IEA forecasts. Even more unreal: Majority of BEV in China is now cheaper than it’s ICE equivalent! www.iea.org/reports/glob...
- Reposted by Christopher Leisinger[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Christopher LeisingerIn der morgigen Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung spreche ich mit Stefanie Diemand über den Koalitionsvertrag und die wirtschafts- und arbeitsmarktpolitischen Herausforderungen der neuen Bundesregierung, u.a. Sondervermögen, Wochenarbeitszeit, Steuerbefreiung für Überstunden und Mindestlohn.
- Reposted by Christopher Leisinger[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Christopher Leisinger[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Christopher Leisinger[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Christopher Leisinger[Not loaded yet]
-
View full threadReposted by Christopher LeisingerFinal point, schauen wir nach ganz rechts außen... 67% halten die AfD für Rechtsextremisten. Aber nur 5% der AfD-Wähler. Wenn man da die Magie des Dreisatzes walten lässt, stellt man fest: Von den Nicht-AfD-Wählern müssen es fast 90% sein. Klare Polarisierung! die 67% verschleiern das eher.
- Reposted by Christopher LeisingerThere’s so much happening right now, I thought I’d put together a running thread on the dismantling of #climate and research and knowledge infrastructure in the United States 🧵
- Reposted by Christopher Leisinger[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Christopher LeisingerUpdated fossil CO2 emission estimates from @robbieandrew.bsky.social Based on the latest data, we estimate fossil CO2 emissions went up 0.9% in 2024. Listen to his presentation here (starting about 8:55): cicero.oslo.no/no/arrangeme... 1/
- EU ETS2 future trading has gone live today with an opening price of 73€/tCO2! This is all early days, and uncertainty about 2027 prices remains high - now it’s first and foremost up to MS to implement complementary measures to mitigate upward pressure. www.ice.com/products/830...
- Sehr treffen: Klimapolitik muss ehrgeizig bleiben und experimentelle Ansätze wagen. Doch wenn die Zustimmung zur Klimawende zu bröckeln droht, sollte sie vor allem eins sein: effizient und sozial gerecht. Genau darin liegt die klimapolitische Herausforderung für die Merz-Regierung.
- Reposted by Christopher Leisinger[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Christopher Leisinger[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Christopher Leisinger[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Christopher Leisinger[Not loaded yet]
- Reposted by Christopher LeisingerYesterday, the Chair of the @esabcc.bsky.social , Ottmar Edenhofer, had the opportunity to exchange views with @wopkehoekstra.ec.europa.eu on the Advisory Board’s recent report on carbon dioxide removals. Link in comments to the full report.
