Archie Hall
Writing for The Economist—mostly on the US economy, with occasional forays elsewhere. Recreational Britain-watcher. Previous lives in macro investing and polling.
Substack at: notes.archie-hall.com
- PEAK TARIFFS? As tariff rates surged in 2025, so did tariff revenues. But since the middle of last year, they have pretty much flatlined. Has America's tariff take peaked? I play with that idea for @economist.com this week. A few possible drivers there in a 🧵 below www.economist.com/finance-and-...
- 1/ Already, we've seen the latest slate of new tariff threats (re Greenland, Korea, elsewhere) not bite: market and business tolerance seems to have peaked. And the upcoming Supreme Court decision on IEEPA tariffs may well nudge tariff rates down.
- 2/ But businesses are adapting, too. The inventories that were built up ahead of the tariff announcements have run down. Some might be shuffling supply chains. Lots more are mulling forms of trickery to reduce the duty they pay. Consumers are shifting away from tariffed goods.
- 3/ Overall: quite a lot of reasons to see the tariff take edge down, and not all that many for it to rise. And that's before we consider the effect that tariffs have on other taxes, by clogging up the economy and lowering growth.
- WHAT IS WARSHONOMICS? Kevin Warsh's dovish pivot since Donald Trump won in 2024 is staggering. Over a 20+ year career, he has pretty much always been a hawk: until now. But on his real hobbyhorse, unwinding QE, Warsh remains remarkably consistent. My column: www.economist.com/finance-and-...
- Some reflections on Kevin Warsh as a prose stylist, from me in this week's "Money Talks" newsletter for @economist.com www.economist.com/newsletters/...
- Can a hawk change its feathers? A few thoughts on Kevin Warsh-- www.economist.com/finance-and-...
