“Unless the House descends into chaos” possibility is increasing
Traditionally Rules was filled w/ supporters of the Speaker, but the crazies demanded they have enough members on Rules to tank stuff in exchange for backing Johnson (& McCarthy) as Speaker
We stay in a 6-bill shutdown if this fails
We're looking at a 6-bill shutdown that likely lasts until Monday unless the House descends into chaos.
Upon enactment, all of the govt EXCEPT DHS will have full-year funding. DHS funding expires February 14 (tho ICE & CBP continue in a DHS shutdown). At that point, we will be fighting JUST on DHS.
What part of the govt would be part of this 6-bill shutdown?
-Defense
-Labor-HHS-Education
-Transportation-HUD
-State & Foreign Ops
-Financial Services & General Govt
-DHS
But, importantly, many of these operations continue either w/ or w/out pay during the shutdown.
ICE and CBP continue w/ pay.
Jan 31, 2026 21:21To show my cards, I think the setup Schumer negotiated provides more leverage than this bcuz it separates out DHS. The DHS bill would continue for 2 weeks, but then we’d have a DHS-only shutdown. Harm is limited to DHS, so Ds aren’t worried bcuz SSI or Section 8 payments would eventually stop. YMMV!
