decisiondeskhq
- In the 2026 race for the House, Democrats consistently lead Republicans by ~5 points. A big part of that? Independents prefer Dems by a big margin. Losing indies has often been a midterm problem for the president's party. Read DDHQ's polling memo: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/democrats-...
- Dems have led DDHQ's generic ballot avg by ~5 points since Nov 2025. That'd be consistent with a ~6.5 point swing to the left from 2024. Currently, there are 227 House seats that Harris won or Trump won by <6.5. If Dems win most, they'll get a majority. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/democrats-...
- Problem for GOP: Dems lead independents by double-digits. With some indies, that equals a 2-vote net gain for Dems by flipping a voter who previously backed the GOP. Pres party has lost indies by 10+ in each midterm 2006-22 (except '22), per exit polls. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/democrats-...
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View full threadIf you'd like to get DDHQ's FREE polling memo in your inbox every Tuesday afternoon, please subscribe here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/welcome
- Happy Election Day! DDHQ is tracking results for 20 races this evening. Marquee race: NY Assembly District 36 vote to succeed Zohran Mamdani. DSA member Diana Moreno (D) is favored but faces 2 DSA compatriots running as indies. Follow results here: election-night.decisiondeskhq.com/date/2026-02...
- There are also crowded primaries in the special for Michigan Senate District 35. Seat was left vacant when Kristen McDonald Rivet (D) won a seat in Congress. Dems hold only 19-18 edge in MI Senate, making this a key race. Follow tonight's results: election-night.decisiondeskhq.com/date/2026-02...
- At 6pm, DDHQ will release its latest Polling Memo. The writeup includes: -What the Democrats' lead on the generic ballot could mean for the 2026 House race -Updates on Trump's approval and many 2026 races To get the memo in your inbox, subscribe here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/welcome
- ICYMI the DDHQ newsletter looked at how the 2030 apportionment could help Republicans more than Democrats. States that voted for Trump in '24 will gain 10 electoral votes; Democratic linchpins of CA (-4) & NY (-2) are projected to lose seats.
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- This week's DDHQ newsletter: Why Democrats will lose ground in the 2030 census📉 Projections show blue states will lose seats in next apportionment, costing Dems more electoral votes than the GOP. Biggest changes? Texas +4 & California -4. Read more: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/democrats-...
- Across 3 projections, states that gained hail from Sun Belt & Interior West: TX (+4) & FL (+3), with 1-seat gains for AZ, GA, ID, NC & UT Losers from West Coast & Frost Belt: CA (-4), NY (-2), 1-seat losses for IL, PA, MN, OR, PA, RI decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/democrats-...
- Projected changes would've increased Trump’s 312-226 electoral vote win in 2024 to 322-216. That'd be akin to adding a medium-sized blue state to the GOP’s total — say Minnesota, which has 10 electoral votes (but is projected to lose one in 2030). decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/democrats-...
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View full threadYou can get DDHQ's insights and analysis in your inbox for FREE every Monday morning by subscribing here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/welcome
- Decision Desk HQ projects Christian Menefee to win the US House special election in Texas's 18th congressional district. #DecisionMade: 10:59 pm ET
- DDHQ Race Update (est. 46% in): Texas US House 18 Runoff Christian Menefee (D): 9,077 (66.7%) Amanda Edwards (D): 4,544 (33.4%) Follow more results here: election-night.decisiondeskh...
- DDHQ Race Update (est. 46% in): Texas State Senate 9 Runoff Taylor Rehmet (D): 25,667 (56.2%) Leigh Wambsganss (R): 19,979 (43.8%) Follow more results here: zurl.co/mT4Pn
- Tonight, we're tracking eight elections in Texas. The marquee race is the runoff election in Texas's 18th Congressional District. Two Democrats vying to replace the late Sylvester Turner in this Houston-based district. Follow at the link below: election-night.decisiondeskhq.com/date/2026-01...
- We're also tracking the special election in Texas's 9th State Senate District, based in Tarrant County. This district voted for Trump by 18 points in 2024. Ennis, Texas is holding special elections for both Mayor and Mayor Pro Tempore. election-night.decisiondeskhq.com/date/2026-01...
- In Frisco City, Texas, we're tracking special elections for two city council positions. We're also following an at-large special election for city council in Grand Prairie, and a city council runoff in Schertz City. Find all the results below: election-night.decisiondeskhq.com/date/2026-01...
- Winner of #TX18 runoff tomorrow will further narrow GOP's House majority. After the winner (a Dem) is sworn in, GOP will have 218-214 edge (w/ 3 vacancies). Granted, another gov shutdown could make it easier for Mike Johnson to delay swearing in the winner, as happened with Adelita Grijalva.
