William Lane
Policy, Public Affairs and Electoral Analysis
'Political Analyst' - Aaron H. Ellis
Views my own
Writes at thepartyanimal.substack.com
- Yeah and thats become even less likely with Badenoch stabilising as Tory leader. Honestly there's a huge question mark over whether Reform can survive post 2029 if it doesn't get a majority. I've begun thinking a Tory strategy based on just keeping the show on the road until then may actually work.
- They're not going to get another majority anytime soon (quite possibly ever). But I do think the likelihood of them sticking around as a party has increased somewhat, which has large implications for the right bloc of British politics for the foreseeable future.
- (TBC Reform's potential issues after 2029 are purely about whether Farage has the ability to keep what would be an extremely fractious party together without the unifying factor of power. It says nothing about the broader appeal of populist right politics in the UK post 2029).
- Having had a sneak preview of this at Glen's talk for the London New Liberals, I'm definitely going to be buying this as soon as I get back to 🇬🇧. New Labour's domestic policy is ripe for re-examination as the question of what a centre-left government looks like in the modern day is asked again.
- I am (as of right now) in that circle, and it's a pretty cool place all things considered!
- If this is supposed to win Farage the Home Counties....colour me skeptical. Restoring the two child cap by itself would be popular, but Farage's Achilles heel with culturally Tory voters is his spendthrift, populist nature. He isn't exactly seen as overburdened by fiscal sobriety!
- This smacks of him trying to have his cake and eat it too, tapdancing on an ever thinning tightrope between the Red Wall and the Home Counties. I think it works out for him long term about as well as it did for Boris Johnson.
- This basically happened last year in Cornwall, where Reform won the most seats but fell short of a majority, meaning that the second place Lib Dems entered into a coalition with independents to take control of the council. It could well be that in 2029, as Truro goes, so goes the nation.
- (Reform have also lost five of its 28 Cornish councillors to infighting, which may also be a preview of what could happen if they do end up with a lot of MPs in 2029).
- Posting this for any of my followers who'd be interested in my thoughts on conspiracy culture and the souls games! @stradiwhovius.bsky.social @batariangal.bsky.social @stephenkb.bsky.social you guys might find this interesting :)
- Exactly this, and Polanski hasn't exactly been putting forward policies that suggest he's ready to compromise with the electorate (*cough* Nukes *cough*). IMO Green support is somewhat soft currently, partly because they're still not seen as a viable governing party.
- Me, a few hours ago 'I've got a few free hours and haven't written anything for a while, let's do a quick substack post'. Me, now, staring at an almost 1,000 word document with no end in sight 'sigh, why am I like this'.
- That is...a remarkably poor line. If the by-election was taking place in London I could see it landing, but Polanski is A) an elected official elsewhere and B) not based in Manchester. Perhaps this is Labour trying out the line now, assuming that Polanski won't run for London Mayor?
- Balcony view of Hanoi on a rainy morning.
