Duncan Gibb
clean heat, renewables, music, tennis
Senior Associate at @regassistproj.bsky.social
🇨🇦 raised 🇩🇪 then 🇨🇵 now
- sometimes I just have to say... bless the youtube algo www.youtube.com/watch?v=66yH...
- 🚨No 2025 heat pump rebound in France. Very similar market to 2024. 🟰 After dropping 40% in 2024, sales of air-to-water heat pumps stayed roughly flat. The 2025 rebound seen in other countries, such as Germany, did not happen in Europe's (still?) leading heat pump market.
- Heat pumps, in total, are still outselling condensing boilers though. What happened? A few thoughts: 1) End of the energy crisis and high gas prices. This caused an important cultural shift towards "getting off gas" that is still reflected in the lower boiler sales, but not in heat pump sales.
- 2) Tight budgets. Installing a heat pump is still more expensive than a gas boiler. 3) Most importantly, government chaos. Mixed signals from the ecological ministry and finance ministry.
- No budget. And worst of all, the flagbearing subsidy scheme MaPrimeRénov was suspended, then not, then yes, then no and finally yes. www.uniclima.fr/userfiles/20...
- Guess the market: Bitcoin or a certain kind of heating technology in France? Source: www.uniclima.fr/userfiles/20...
- Voilà: Gas consumption in France fell again. 350 TWh in 2025, down 3% from 2024. Household use fell 1.8%. Heat pumps are a main driver of this. But France is once again faced with tariff increases due to lower volumes. Long-term planning is needed. www.connaissancedesenergies.org/la-consommat...
- Here comes Germany's heat pump market. A big rally in 2025. Almost 300,000 heat pumps sold in 2025 for the second-highest sales volume ever, by far, and a 55% increase on 2024. It would appear that the market is settling after the frenzy of 2022/2023 and hopefully good things to come in 2026.
