Secretary Bessent brags that deficits fell from $1,307 billion in the first half of FY 2025 (Oct-Mar) down to $468 billion in the second half of the year (Apr-Sept). He credits Trump's aggressive savings policies.

The problem? Monthly deficits *always* shrink in the second half of the fiscal year because the later April-Sept period includes big revenues from the April 15th tax deadline, and 3 of the 4 quarterly corporate tax due dates. Falling deficits are due to tax due dates, not policy.

Yes, the 2025-2H deficits were smaller than the 2H deficits in 2023 & 2024. That's also an accounting timing issue - the govt "booked" several years of OBBBA student loan savings in August & Sept. They didn't achieve the savings, they just counted the NPV ahead of time.

That leaves $110 billion in higher revenues from tariffs in the second half of 2025. That is real - but also not guaranteed to last due to the courts, policy changes, and revenues lost to Americans switching out of imports. And its far smaller than the ballooning OBBBA cost.

Wait - Didn't DOGE drastically cut deficits in the second of half of 2025? Haha, you're funny. The only evidence of DOGE savings is a $12 billion reduction in State Dept & foreign aid funding. And the IRS layoffs will cost more money than that in tax evasion and fewer audits.